Five ways Raiders can beat resurgent Browns
We’ll have a better idea today if the Raiders’ hopes of being on the playoff fringe are legitimate or just another cruel joke played upon a tortured but loyal fan base.
Same goes for the host Cleveland Browns.
The Browns have had 12 consecutive losing seasons, and last made the playoffs in 2002 — the same year the Raiders won the AFC championship — losing their wild- card game after going 9-7. Cleveland went 10- 6 in 2007 and still didn’t make the playoffs.
So here sit the Browns at 5-2 under rookie coach Kevin Stefanski, just three years removed from going 0-16 under Hue Jackson and having fired last year’s coach Freddie Kitchens after one 6-10 season.
Is it real or a mirage? Upon closer inspection, Cleveland has beaten just one team with a winning record, defeating Indianapolis (currently 4-2).
When Cleveland played the top two teams in the AFC North, Baltimore (5-1) and Pittsburgh (6- 0), they lost by a combined score of 76
13. The Browns own a pair of wins over Cincinnati (15-1) as well as struggling NFC East teams Washington and Dallas, both 2- 5.
The Raiders, 3- 3, own wins over New Orleans and defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City and were competitive into the fourth quarter against division leaders Buffalo (5-2) and Tampa Bay (5-2). Their worst loss, in retrospect, was getting run over by a New England team currently looking lost at 2- 4.
Like the Raiders, who are giving up 32.8 points per game, Cleveland allows points in bunches, surrendering 31.6. Both teams can score, with Cleveland averaging 28.6 points per game and the Raiders 28.5.
So don’t rule out something similar to their last meeting in 2018, when the Raiders won 45- 42 in Oakland in overtime and the teams combined for 1,052 yards of total offense in Jon Gruden’s first win in his second tenure as coach.
“It’s still wide open,” Gruden said of the 2020 season. “I do think there are a lot of teams in the hunt and I think the cream always rises. You’re going to see that happen here in the next seven or eight weeks.”
Five ways the Raiders can win Sunday and become one of those teams:
1. TAKE CARE OF THE BALL >> The Browns probably resemble the 2016 Raiders more than the 2020 Raiders Jack Del Rio’s team could score points and had a subpar defense but did take the ball away and ended up tied for the NFL lead with a plus-16 turnover margin.
For all the points the Browns are giv ing up, they’ve got 14 takeaways — seven interceptions and seven fumble recoveries — which leads the NFL. T hey ’ ve also turned it over nine times for a plus- 5 margin.
The Raiders have only three takeaways with three interceptions and no fumble recoveries and eight giveaways (two interceptions, six lost fumbles) for a minus- 5.
“T hey have 14 takeaways, we have three, and that’s a big reason why they’re 5-2 and we’re 3- 3,”
Gruden said.
Keeping Myles Garrett from wrecking the game with sack- fumbles is a must because quarterback Derek Carr’s biggest weakness at this point is a propensity to fumble when hit in the pocket.
2. CARR OUTPLAYS BAKER MAYFIELD >> Carr has already stared down Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes and come up short against Tom Brady in a week where his offensive line didn’t practice after Monday. Carr is having his best season, mixing in deep throws now and then, even using his legs on occasion to escape trouble, find secondary receivers and even scramble for the occasional first down.
The Browns’ Baker Mayfield is similar to Carr in that there’s a portion of the fan base that remains skeptical if he’s the longterm answer in his third year after being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Being quarterback of either the Browns or Raiders is an invitation to skepticism.
Mayfield is down two key weapons, with running back Nick Chubb out indefinitely with an MCL strain and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. out for the season with a torn ACL. But Mayfield is an exceptional anticipatory thrower when given time, and like Carr, he’s at his best when paired with a strong running game.
Unlike Carr, Mayfield is in his first year in Stefanski’s system as opposed to Year 3 for Carr under Gruden.
“That’s a huge deal for Derek. There’s a saying, he knows where all the bones are buried on those plays,” Stefanski said in a video conference. “He’s been through ’ em, he’s got a thousand reps on him now. I think that’s a big deal in a quarterback playing fast and playing free.”
3. RUN TO WIN >> The old saying is “throw to score, run to win.” That should be the case when two very good offensive lines look to control suspect defenses. The Browns are ranked third in the NFL in rushing at 157.0 yards per game, but in the last three games without Chubb have averaged 93.7. Kareem Hunt, with 463 yards, is the feature back.
Defensively, the Raiders have been good against the run since a 250-yard orgy of missed tackles against New England in Week 3, giving up just 3.3 yards per carry (228 yards on 69 attempts) against Buffalo,
Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
The Raiders will look to increase Josh Jacobs’ average of 3.4 yards per attempt against a Browns defense giving up 92.1 yards per game, a dramatic improvement from last season’s sieve-like 144.7 figure.
The more the Raiders can run, the more it slows the charge of Garrett, who can rush the passer from either side and can have a Khalil Mack-like presence on any game.
4. MANAGE THE ELEMENTS >> Wind and rain are expected. Carr has struggled in the cold and the temperature could be in the 40s. He has had some good games in Oakland in the rain. It could be a tight end kind of day, with Carr looking to Darren Waller for short gains with a few run- after- catch opportunities that could push his average beyond its current meager 8.6 yards per catch.
Defensively, if the Raiders can keep up their decent work against the run, it will be incumbent on defensive backs to keep Mayfield from connecting on medium- depth throws against a receiving unit shorn of Beckham, Cleveland’s most explosive wideout.
The way the Raiders are constructed under Gruden, with a balance- oriented attack with few frills, they should be good in the rain and weather shouldn’t be a problem.
5. REGARDING HENRY >> It sounded Monday as if Gruden was challenging rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs III. He said Tampa Bay covered him — blanketed was the term — and reminded everyone Ruggs is still a rookie.
“He’s developing every week,” echoed offensive coordinator Greg Olson. “He ran into some good defensive backs last week, but he’ll continue to get better.”
If Ruggs reacts the way Gruden hopes, he’ll get loose a time or two against Cleveland provided the field is in good condition. Fast receivers can have an advantage in the rain because they know where they’re going.
A long touchdown could make a big difference, and it doesn’t have to come on a rainbow pass. Ruggs is equally capable of taking a bubble screen, jet sweep or reverse to the house. If game circumstances permit, Gruden should have each of those plays in the game plan.