Niners’ push begins in exile
San Francisco’s first game at new home in Arizona is against the Bills today
Hosting a game 709 miles from Levi’s Stadium is, strangely enough, just another chapter in surely the 49ers’ most off-script season ever.
It’s not as if any other 49ers team played through a pandemic, all while coming off a Super Bowl loss and enduring myriad injuries, Zoom video conferences and other oddities.
Santa Clara County’s ban on contact sports for CO
VID-19 sake prompted the 49ers’ exodus this past week to Glendale, Ariz., where they’re practicing and likely playing four of their remaining five regular-season games.
State Farm Stadium, in Glendale, Ariz., is now the home field the 49ers (5- 6) must defend, starting tonight against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills.
The Bills’ last road trip, ironically, was to Arizona, where they lost to the stadium’s primary tenants, the Cardinals, on a Hail Mary pass 32-30 on Nov. 15.
When it comes to Bills’ history — aside from how they made it to five conference games like the 49ers between 1988-93 — it’s worth noting is that they’ve lost their last seven “Monday Night Football” games and haven’t won on that stage since 1999. If they’re to win their first AFC title since 1995, they’ll have to fare better in prime time, four of their next five games are in that East Coast time slot.
The 49ers are favored by a point, reflecting not only credibility they regained with last Sunday’s road win over the Los Angeles Rams, but how they could make a December push for the playoffs with once-injured starters returning to their lineup.
Flying south for the winter to Arizona is an unprecedented, extended-stay trip that the 49ers are embracing.
“It feels the same to me like Santa Clara,” safety Jimmie Ward said.
Uh oh, the 49ers were just 1-4 at Levi’s Stadium this season. Here is how they can start 1-0 at State Farm Stadium:
1. COACHING MATCHUPS >> Almost four years ago, the 49ers interviewed Sean McDermott and Kyle Shanahan to be their next coach. McDermott “really enjoyed” what he called a “very thorough” search by the 49ers, adding: “You could tell they were headed in the right direction.”
While the 49ers targeted Shanahan and waited for him to finish out a Super Bowl run with Atlanta, McDermott headed to Buffalo, where he has the Bills heading for their third playoff berth in four years, after wild-card losses in 2017 and ‘19.
While the defensiveminded McDermott and the offensive- whiz Shanahan praised each other and drew on past clashes as NFC South coordinators, another coaching matchup is just as intriguing, if not more so.
Robert Saleh, the 49ers’ fourth-year defensive coordinator, faces a tough challenge against Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Both will be interviewing for head- coach openings next month around the league, and their unit’s statistics back up the coordinator’s lofty credentials from past years.
“Brian’s doing a phenomenal job putting them in position to be successful,” Saleh said of a Bills’ offense that has the NFL’s second-best conversion rate (49.6%).
2. RUNBALL, KEEPBALL>> Shanahan did his best to commend the Bills’ run defense that the 49ers must look to exploit, especially with explosive plays, which Shanahan relishes.
Ranked 25th in allowing 129.6 rushing yards per game, the Bills are vulnerable, even if linebacker A. J. Klein was last week’s AFC Defensive Player of the Week (14 tackles, 1 1/2 sacks).
But the 49ers must run better than last game against the Rams. It’s not just that Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson each rushed for only 43 yards. It’s that each lost a fumble, and Shanahan’s No. 1 emphasis this past week – as it is every week, honestly – is ball security.
The 49ers had gone 475 snaps without fumbling, general manager John Lynch said, in a Thursday interview on KNBR 680-AM. The Bills have forced 16 fumbles and have recovered nine, tied for the NFL’s second-most.
A more settled offensive line and the potential re-entry of Tevin Coleman for relief runs could significantly key the run offense.
3. ALLEN’SBIGSKILLS>> When Saleh studied the Bills’ film, he was taken aback. Quarterback Josh Allen “is a problem,” Saleh said. “He is much more than I was expecting when I flipped on the tape. It is a tremendous challenge.”
Allen is no longer a runhappy, strong-armed dual threat. In Year 3, the Firebaugh native still can book it (team-high six TD run) but he’s more accurate of a passer and more willing to stew in the pocket while diagnosing the defense.
“His passing numbers are really extraordinary right now,” cornerback Richard Sherman said. “He’s doing a great job because he felt like people were kind of boxing him into being a running quarterback and he really wants to show his arm talent.”
Allen’s completion percentage jumped this year from 52.8 to 68.8. He’s thrown for 3,028 yards and 22 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
He’s been sacked 22 times, tied for the league’s ninth most. Speaking of, Kerry Hyder Jr.’s team-high 7 1/2 sacks are tied for the NFL’s ninth most, helping offset Arik Armstead’s seven-game drought without a sack for the 49ers.
4. STOP DIGGS, STOP BEASLEY >> It’s no secret that Allen is flourishing with this year’s addition of former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs.
“He’s underrated but his talent continues to shine,” Sherman said. “Just about every game he’s made a huge impact play to help them win. He’s really dynamic, does a great job selling things.”
Diggs’ 80 receptions (110 targets) are second in the NFL, and he’s 55 yards away from his third straight 1,000yard season.
While Sherman or Jason Verrett likely will match up most against Diggs, perhaps the more dangerous receiver could be Cole Beasley in the slot, where the 49ers are shifting Emmanuel Moseley to cover that spot after injuries to K’Waun Williams and Jamar Taylor. Beasley had 11 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown at Arizona three weeks ago.
Although Allen is willing to spread his targets, one option he’s without is John Brown, who went on Injured Reserve with a high ankle sprain, and that works in the 49ers’ favor.
5. SO MANY WEAPONS? >> Look, the 49ers offense is not at full strength, not with tight end George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo still rehabbing for a potential lateseason return. Optimism abounds, however.
Wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk should start together for only the fifth time this season. Plus, this marks only the second game that the 49ers will have those receivers along with Mostert, Wilson and Coleman, not to mention running back Jerick McKinnon.
One more player to keep an eye on: tight end Ross Dwelley, who came through with clutch catches in the 49ers’ last game at Arizona, a 2019 victory on Halloween night.
“To see how much better those guys are with the ball in space, it makes this team better,” Nick Mullens said. “And so, the more guys we can get back to make us better as an offense, it’s a blessing and we’re pumped.”