Bay Area faces major vaccine distribution challenges in 2021
The distribution of CO- VID-19 vaccine is shaping up as America’s biggest logistical challenge since World War II.
Bay Area residents should prepare for logistical issues that could delay immunization beyond the end of 2021, when health officials forecast a return to “normalcy.”
In order to reach herd immunity, at least 70% of the Bay Area population of 7.75 million would need to be immune through a vaccine or prior infection. That equates to 4.2 million people. Assuming 500,000 Bay Area infections by the end of 2021 would translate into the need to inject more than 7 million doses, since the most promising vaccines require two doses to be effective.
Each California county is working on a vaccine distribution plan. Health officials say the “last mile” of vaccine distribution is expected to be where the vast majority of safety issues would occur.
Santa Clara County Executive Jeff Smith said last week that he anticipates the Bay Area would face a number of significant logistical problems. How big?
The COVID vaccination process is even more challenging than the COVID testing process, which nearly a year after it began remains far from ideal.
The first obstacle is cold storage.
Keeping any product cold is difficult. Pfizer’s vaccine must be kept at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit to remain effective, requiring special freezers that cost in the neighborhood of $10,000 apiece. The demand for the freezers is already outstripping supply. Santa Clara County has purchased four of the freezers and two have been delivered. But the potential for spoilage along the supply chain is high. Health officials cite a 2019 study that estimated 25% of vaccines are degraded by the time they arrive at their destination due to shipping errors.
Moderna’s vaccine also needs to be kept frozen, but is stable at normal freezer temperatures.
Each county must establish a vaccination priority list and then track who got vaccinated, which vaccine they received and ensure that they come in for a second vaccination three weeks to a month after the first shot. Establishing a database that can smoothly handle millions of vaccination cases won’t be easy.
Counties must also designate and train staff members to vaccinate people and provide them with adequate supplies. That proved to be a bottleneck for delivering COVID tests on a timely basis. Staff members will need alcohol wipes, gloves, masks, needles and syringes, many of which are already in short supply at hospitals and clinics.
Kaiser and Sutter will relieve some of the pressure on counties, as they are expected to receive an allocation of doses from the state.
And all that is assuming that the vaccines don’t run into any kind of safety issues and prove to be as effective as studies previously demonstrated.
Bay Area residents need to acknowledge the depth of the vaccination challenge and prepare a healthy dose of patience as the process unfolds.