Bay Area recovers only third of lost jobs

Epic losses leave employment in deep hole year after coronavirus

The Bay Area economy, which only a year ago was perhaps the hottest in the United States, now has such a feeble job market that it could be two years before it recuperates from COVIDinflicted ailments.

The region has recovered fewer than one-third of the jobs that employers jettisoned in March and April of last year due to government-ordered business shutdowns to battle the coronavirus.

“It is a huge jobs deficit,” said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Stockton-based Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific. “The winter coronavirus surge wiped out the meager job gains from the fall.”

All of the Bay Area’s three major urban centers, Santa Clara County, the East Bay, and the San Francisco-San Mateo region, have failed to recover even 40% of the jobs they lost in March and April of last year, this news organization’s analysis of the latest figures from the state Employment Development Department shows.

Worst off is the San Francisco-San Mateo region, which could take five years to recover the jobs lost in two months in 2020.

“Dire is a good description of the Bay Area job market,” said Patrick Kallerman, research director with the Bay Area Council’s Economic Institute. “The Bay Area is not doing well. Our region was pretty forceful with how it locked down. As a result, residents are pretty hesitant to go out dining and drinking, or shopping at local retailers.”

California fares no better. The Golden State has recovered only about one-third of the positions that were chopped statewide during March and April of last year.

The state and region is in sharp contrast to the picture nationwide. The United States has regained about 56% of the jobs it lost during the two bad months.

Still, a Bay Area economic upswing could easily ramp up the pace of job gains and shorten the recovery timeframe.

Christopher Thornberg, an economist and founding partner with Beacon Economics, said the region’s prospects are favorable.

” All the forward indicators are red hot,” Thornberg said. “I anticipate most of these jobs will be back within the year.”

Other experts also believe that the Bay Area job market could rally quickly — once the regional

economy finally gets some traction.

“I expect a rapid jobs recovery,” said economist Stephen Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “The Bay Area has the lowest virus case level of any area in the state. The Bay Area is leading in vaccinations. This region is doing everything right to recover quickly.”

The Bay Area’s employment rebound has been so sluggish that at the current pace of monthly job gains from May 2020 through January 2021 it could take two years, or 22 months for the nine-county region to get back to the record-high employment levels of February 2020.

Among the largest metro areas in California — those that had at least 1 million payroll jobs prior to the massive employment cuts — the San Francisco-San Mateo area is mired in the deepest employment morass. That area has only recovered only 13.3% of the 187,500 jobs it lost in March and April.

Here’s how other major urban centers in the state stack up in terms of the percentage of the jobs they have recovered from May 2020 through January 2021 versus the jobs they lost in March and April 2020:

• Santa Clara County has regained 30.7% of the 153,600 jobs it shed.

• The East Bay has recovered 39.7% of 196,200 jobs lost.

• Los Angeles County has regained a mere 25.9% of its huge loss of 772,500 jobs.

• Orange County has recouped 27.4% of 276,800 jobs lost.

• San Diego County, 37.5% of 254,200 jobs lost.

• Sacramento County, 52.3% of the 137,200 jobs lost.

• San Bernardino-Riverside has recouped 52.5% of the 223,300 jobs it lost.

• The Bay Area has recovered only 29.4% of the 638,600 jobs it lost. The nine-county region must overcome a whopping deficit of 451,100 jobs to reclaim the record-setting employment of February 2020.

California has regained only 34% of the 2.71 million jobs that it lost in March and April 2020. That means the state has to make up a shortfall of an eye-popping 1.79 million jobs before it can get back to where it was before the shutdowns began.

The shortfall, when measured against the per-month pace of recovery, shows California is about 18 months away from regaining all of its lost jobs.

The South Bay is about 20 months away, or nearly two years, from getting back to the employment level it boasted in February 2020. The East Bay will require 14 months to recover.

The weakest of the weak among the big metro areas in California? The region consisting of San Francisco and San Mateo counties. It could take five years, or 59 months, for that region to get back to where it was in February 2020.

The collapse of the hotel and restaurant sector in the Bay Area, which during the boom years was a travel and dining magnet, is a huge factor behind the Bay Area’s struggles to recoup its lost employment.

Despite all of those woes, Levy holds out hope that the devastation endured by the region’s economy, along with the stern lockdowns, will provide a solid foundation for an employment renaissance.

“We are poised for a rapid recovery because we went through the pain of the shutdowns,” Levy said.