Heed warning of likelihood of big quake
Gulp.
It’s the only appropriate response to an updated United States Geological Survey study of the likely aftermath of a magnitude 7 earthquake along the Hayward fault.
That and a renewed sense of urgency of the need for Bay Area residents to renew efforts to prepare for the inevitable.
We know that the last major earthquake on the Hayward fault occurred in 1868 — 153 years ago. We also know that, on average, dating back to the year 1134, the fault produces a major earthquake roughly every 150 years. So, yes, we’re overdue. And there’s no time to lose in getting ready for an earthquake that USGS earthquake geologist emeritus David Schwartz calls a “tectonic time bomb” that is “just waiting to go off.”
Longtime Bay Area residents will recall the damage caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake, which struck on Oct. 17, 1989, at 5:04 p.m., as people were heading home for Game 3 of the Bay Bridge World Series between the Giants and A’s. The 6.9 earthquake resulted in 63 deaths, mostly from the collapse of the double-decked Nimitz Freeway, injured more than 3,700, destroyed 366 businesses and 11,000 homes and caused $6 billion in property damage.
It’s sobering to recall that the 1989 earthquake’s epicenter was near Loma Prieta Peak in the Santa Cruz Mountains, roughly 60 miles from Oakland. USGS geologists call the Hayward fault the single most urbanized earthquake fault in the United States, with about 2.5 million people living along the fault line.
It’s not just homes, apartment buildings and businesses that are at risk. The Hayward fault runs along a major transit corridor complete with freeways, highways, roads, streets and rail lines. Miles and miles of critical gas and water pipelines and electrical transmission lines will be tested.
The USGS update adds 180 pages to the 600-page 2018 report. The authors outline a Hayward fault earthquake scenario that could result in property damage losses of more than $82 billion and 800 fatalities. The report indicates that a 1% addition to construction costs “could increase the percentage of occupiable homes and workplaces from 75% to 95% following a large earthquake” in the region.
The USGS envisions in its scenario that cellphone service would be knocked out for 93% of the users in the immediate area and that communications would be scrambled for emergency response teams.
East Bay residents could be unable to access water or power for weeks or even months.
When it comes to earthquakes, too many of us know they are inevitable but still fail to make adequate preparations.
It’s time to take action. No more waiting. No more excuses.
Use today to take the following precautionary steps:
• Secure your home by making sure it is bolted to the foundation. Take steps to prevent objects from flying off walls, bookcases and cabinets.
• Make a communications plan for family members and loved ones for how you will connect after a major earthquake. Include in your plan contingencies in case cellphones, email or texting is not working.
• Ensure that you have adequate food, water and medical supplies in case the area’s infrastructure collapses, which could happen for a period of hours, days, weeks or even months in certain areas.
• Consider downloading one of the earthquake alert apps (UC Berkeley’s MyShake and Early Warning Labs’ QuakeAlertUSA) to increase the chances of advance warning of a quake.
• Instruct family members on the safest course of action (diving under a desk or sturdy table) in case an earthquake takes place.
We can reduce the damage of a major earthquake by making adequate precautions. No more procrastination. Get prepared. Today.