Vote count could be a record low

Even with a late surge of returned ballots and at the polls, officials say distinction is possible

California has gone out of its way to boost voter turnout, with everything from automatic registration at the DMV to jungle primaries with ballots not restricted by political party, and most recently the ultra-convenience of mailing every registered voter in the state a ballot to fill out in their PJs.

But heading into Election Day on Tuesday, none of that seemed to be motivating Californians to vote.

Only about 10% of ballots had been returned as of late last week, and election officials aren't expecting a late surge of voting in what's become more of an election month than day. So even if voters end up returning another 15% of the ballots mailed out last month, Tuesday's primary could end up claiming the distinction of the Golden State's lowest primary turnout in 106 years.

For now, the 2014 primary — in a year Gov. Jerry Brown easily won reelection — stands as the lowest, when just 25% of voters statewide cast a ballot. Gov. Gavin Newsom is up for reelection this year, but after he handily beat back a recall effort last year, there's little drama at the top of the ticket.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of voter data firm Political Data Inc., said the trends in returned ballots suggest the state's effort to boost election turnout for this primary is like an abysmal sports franchise trying to attract fans during a losing streak.

“You can have free parking and lower ticket prices, but if the team isn't interesting, people aren't going to show up, and that's what's happening here,” Mitchell said. “We came off this really cathartic election cycle in 2020, where voters turned out in large numbers, and the recall where voters turned out in large numbers, and now people are looking at it and they're, like, `meh.'”

Primaries don't automatically translate to voter apathy.

California primary turnout peaked at 73% in June 1976, amid the first postWatergate presidential race. The state's highest primary turnout outside a presidential race was for the June 1978 primary when 69% cast ballots in an election that marked voters' Proposition 13 property tax revolt.

But statewide primary turnout hasn't topped 60% since 1980, with the highest at 58% in the 2008 presidential primary, the year President Barack Obama was elected. Just 38% of registered voters cast ballots in the state's last gubernatorial primary in June 2018, the year Newsom was first elected.

That was before the COVID-19 pandemic spurred the Golden State to conduct elections by mail statewide, starting with the November 2020 Biden-Trump presidential election, in which eight out of 10 registered voters cast ballots, the highest turnout since 1976.

California's second go at an all-mail election was just last fall, when 58% voted in the Sept. 14 special recall election, which Newsom survived with 62% support.

That was the same margin that put Newsom in office in 2018, enough to chase top Republicans like Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer and John Cox — who ran as replacement candidates in the recall — out of this year's primary, leaving little sense of serious competition in what would ordinarily be this election's main attraction.

The GOP's endorsed alternative to Newsom is state Sen. Brian Dahle, a Lassen County farmer. Among the 24 other contenders, the only candidate with any buzz is Michael Shellenberger, a Bay Area author with no party affiliation who got just 0.5% of the vote running as a Democrat in the 2018 primary.

But turnout looks depressed even where local elections loom large. In Santa Clara County, where San Jose voters have an open race for mayor, just 12% had returned ballots late last week.

Voter interest seemed tepid even in San Francisco, where thefts have spurred an effort to recall District Attorney Chesa Boudin, a far-left former public defender and criminal justice reformer. Matthew Selby, campaign services division manager for the city's elections department, said less than a week before the election just 13% of ballots had been returned, less than the 17% at the same time in June 2018, suggesting lower turnout.

California began tinkering with its primary format back in the 1990s to counter trends in party activists electing candidates far to the left or right of most voters. That led to the current “top two” or “jungle” primary enacted 10 years ago for most partisan races where the two candidates with the most votes advance to November, even if they're from the same party. That happened in 2018 when U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein and fellow Democrat Kevin De Leon were the primary winners.

But polls suggest no such serious competition against an incumbent this year. A Berkeley IGS poll Friday indicated solid leads for Democratic incumbents and no traction for rivals running with no party affiliation. In the governor's race, Newsom has five times the support of Dahle, who has twice the support of Shellenberger. Likewise, incumbent Attorney General Rob Bonta has a comfortable lead over Republican rivals with no-party prosecutor Anne Marie Schubert far behind.

Mitchell said late last week that he's not anticipating a last-minute rush to return ballots or an Election Day surge. And to the extent that there is one, it will likely be more Republicans, many of whom don't trust voting by mail and are more likely to show up at vote centers on Election Day to cast ballots in person.

That is ironic, Mitchell said, “because Democrats used to be the ones who voted late.”

How to vote

All registered Californians should already have received a ballot in the mail. No stamp or postage is required to mail in the ballot. They must be postmarked no later than June 7 and received by June 14. Ballots also may be dropped off at vote centers and drop boxes. They can be located online at https://caearlyvoting.sos.ca.gov/

Santa Clara, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin and Santa Cruz are among California's “Voter's Choice Act” counties that on May 28 opened up additional vote centers where voters can vote in person, drop off their ballot, get a replacement ballot, use an accessible voting machine, get help and voting material in multiple languages and register to vote.

Though the voter registration deadline officially ended May 23, Californians still can conditionally register at election offices and vote centers and cast a provisional ballot on Election Day. Registration status can be checked online at https://voterstatus. sos.ca.gov/.