Can the Sharks hit sweet spot with two top-16 picks?
The San Jose Sharks entered Monday in last place in the NHL's overall standings and are no doubt hopeful they can get a bit lucky in a few months and win the league's draft lottery.
With a bit more luck, the Sharks will have a second draft pick inside the top 16, as the Pittsburgh Penguins try to keep pace in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff race.
The Sharks acquired Pittsburgh's 2024 first-round draft pick as part of last year's trade that saw Erik Karlsson go to the Penguins, who have so far fallen short of expectations and entered their game Monday with the Arizona Coyotes five points out of a playoff spot and in 20th place in the NHL's overall standings.
The draft pick is top 10 protected, so if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs and is in the draft order's top 10 as a result of the lottery, it can keep the pick and transfer its 2025 first-round selection to the Sharks instead.
If the Penguins make the playoffs, that pick could be anywhere in the bottom half of the first round, depending on how far they advance.
From that standpoint, the Sharks would probably like to see the Penguins stay right where they are — outside of the playoffs and above the bottom 10 — so they can have at least two of the top 16 picks this year.
It's a sweet spot that the Sharks, at least right now, appear to have a decent chance to hit.
The Sharks do not want the Penguins to play so well that they make the playoffs and go on a postseason run. But they also do not want Sidney Crosby and Co. to hit the skids too badly that the Penguins become sellers at the trade deadline and increase their chances of picking inside the top 10.
Teams that finish the regular season between 11th and 16th in the overall standings have between a 3.0% and 0.5% chance of winning the lottery, although, per league rules, those teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order.
Per tankathon.com, the Penguins (21-16-6) have the fifth-toughest schedule for the remainder of the season. Karlsson, for his part, came into Monday 13th among all NHL defensemen with 32 points in 43 games.
The Penguins were 3-3-2 in their last eight games before Monday after they blew a two-goal lead in a 3-2 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights two days earlier.
“We didn't defend hard enough,” Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said Saturday. “All three (Vegas) goals were seemingly nothing plays that
ended up in the back of our net. We had numbers back. We've got to defend harder.”
Missing the playoffs for a second straight year would be a disaster for the Penguins, already the oldest team in the NHL. Pittsburgh general manager Kyle Dubas traded for Karlsson to keep the championship window open for franchise legends Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. Crosby and Letang are 36 and Malkin is 37.
For the Sharks, a second pick inside the top 16 can be used in a couple of ways.
This year's draft is deep on defensemen, and if the Sharks feel their pipeline is short on blueliners projected to make a big impact at the NHL level, perhaps they can use that second pick on Carter Yakemchuk (Calgary, WHL), Zeev Buium (Denver, NCAA) or Adam Jiricek (HC Plzen, Czechia), who are ranked 12th to 14th, respectively, in Bob McKenzie's latest 2024 draft rankings on tsn.ca.
The last two defensemen the Sharks drafted in the first round, Mirco Mueller in 2013 and Ryan Merkley in 2018, are no longer in the NHL.
The Sharks could also use the mid-round pick to acquire immediate help, although general manager Mike Grier has been steadfast in saying
he doesn't want to rush his process.
The Sharks haven't had two picks inside the top 16 since 2003 when they selected Milan Michalek sixth overall and Steve Bernier at No. 16.
The Sharks could earn a third first-round pick this year.
As a condition of the Feb. 2023 trade that saw Timo Meier go to New Jersey, the Devils will transfer their first-round pick to San Jose should they advance to the Eastern Conference final. If that doesn't happen, San Jose will receive New Jersey's 2024 second-round selection.
New Jersey entered Monday in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, four points out of a playoff spot with a 23-18-3 record.
The Sharks were 11-34-3 going into their game Monday with the Los Angeles Kings. If they remain in 32nd place, they will have a 25.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery and selecting center Macklin Celebrini, believed by most draft experts to be the top player available this year.
NOTABLE: >> Three Sharks prospects were honored by their respective leagues this week. Defenseman Luca Cagnoni was named the WHL's top player after he led the league in points with a goal and seven assists in four games for Portland.
Forward Quentin Musty was named the OHL's best of the week after he had two goals and eight assists in three games for Sudbury. That included a six-point night with two goals and four assists in his team's 7-3 win over Barrie. Will Smith was named Hockey East Rookie of the Week after he had two points in both of Boston College's wins over Merrimack.