Union County population declines for seventh year running

Union County’s population has declined by about 1.06 percent since last year, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimate.

This follows a trend for Union County, whose population is estimated to have declined more than 7 percent since the last census took place in 2010, from 41,639 at that time to an estimated 39,449 as of July 1, 2017, a drop of 2,190 people. The city of El Dorado’s population decresed by 545 people between the 2010 Census and July 1, 2016, a drop of 2.9 percent. Census estimates subsequent to the 2010 Census have shown Union County population falling at a rate of about .67 percent per year.

This is at odds with the state as a whole, which saw growth during that same period to bring the state’s population to over 3 million for the first time in Arkansas history. The state’s growth has been attributed to natural causes – births exceeding deaths – and a positive net migration level (more people moving to Arkansas than moving out).

Northwest and Central Arkansas also had population growth. The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metropolitan area was one of the fastest growing areas in the U.S., adding nearly 34 people to their population per day between 2016 and 2017.

So why did northwest and central regions see growth while the southern and eastern regions of Arkansas saw declines?

Between July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017, Union County had a natural increase of 30 people, meaning 30 more people were born here than died in that timeframe. The net migration for that year, though, was a loss of 448.

That means that the population decline last year was caused by people moving out of Union County to some other place within the United States. The state as a whole, meanwhile, had a positive net domestic migration rate of 1.6 people per 1,000 residents. The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metropolitan area had a net migration

of 8,448 people, with over 80 percent of that total being from domestic migration.

Arkansas Municipal League Executive Director Don Zimmerman said he thinks El Dorado is on the path to stabilizing its population. He said that with the recent addition of the Murphy Arts District, as well as other industries in the area picking up, like the recent re-opening of the Conifex sawmill, people would want to live in the El Dorado area.

“I’m positive on El Dorado, I think it’s moving in the right direction,” Zimmerman said.

However, with jobs in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors being lost to mechanization and automation, rural communities could continue to experience population declines. Zimmerman noted that with a smaller population, a city or county has fewer expenses, but along with that comes a smaller tax base. He also said that with a smaller population comes a smaller customer base, which is bad for business. Declining industry drives people out of communities with the potential for more local businesses to close, which could lead to a downward spiral for a community’s population.

El Dorado Mayor Hash said the city has been taking active measures to curb any decline in population.

“You know, when you have new things coming like two new dollar stores, a new Dairy Queen, a Hobby Lobby … you have our plants undergoing continuous upgrades, Festivals and Events is up and running — these are all positive things,” Hash said.

The population estimates are based on a formula which adds the population base (the population at the time of the previous Census) to births, subtracts deaths from that total, then figures in migration. Domestic migration rates are calculated using tax returns, Medicare enrollment data, the Social Security Administration’s Numerical Identification File and changes in group quarters (institutions) populations.

The next census will take place in 2020. The U.S. Census Bureau is responsible for counting everyone in the country so that each state receives the proper congressional representation and federal funding.

But several factors have some experts worried about the 2020 count.

Recently, federal officials announced the addition of a citizenship question, which has not been included on the census since before 1950. The question will read “Is this person a citizen of the United States?” and will include five options that will allow the person answering to specify whether they are natural-born citizens, naturalized citizens or non-citizens.

Critics of the move say that it will depress minority and immigrant participation, with some noting that even those immigrants who are citizens or in the country legally may be discouraged from participating if they know someone undocumented. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has countered that the data collected from the question “outweighs such concerns.”

New York and California, two states with large immigrant populations, are leading a charge of 17 states to sue the Trump administration, and the top law enforcement officers from 19 states wrote to Ross in February opposing the change. Both chambers of Congress have called for hearings regarding the question, as well.

Non-participation in the census could have far reaching implications. Federal funding for states depends on population size, so if that population is miscounted, necessary funding states are entitled to will be affected. Scientists also use data from the census to track aspects of U.S. society from the economy and workforce to housing needs and more.

States’ representation in the U.S. House of Representatives is also based on population size, with 435 congressional seats being apportioned among the 50 states. States use census data to draw congressional district boundaries and to determine voting precincts.

County Judge Mike Loftin said he believes the 2010 Census for Union County was inaccurate.

“I really don’t think we got an accurate count, and I think the sales tax numbers help to support that,” Loftin said, adding that he had also spoken to several people who were not counted in the 2010 Census.

Hash agreed with Loftin’s sentiment that the 2010 Census was inaccurate, citing unchanging water usage and trash pick ups as evidence.

The Bureau has had to cancel two out of three planned trial runs for the 2020 Census. There have also been complications with the planned switch to a primarily online-based census. Low funding in the early and mid- years of the decade have caused the digital transition to be harder than initially projected and has contributed to the two cancelled trials.

The 2020 Census will begin in February of that year. One will be able to respond online, via mail or by telephone. The Census Bureau plans to use targeted advertising to encourage participation.

“We’ve got to encourage people, if they get those things in the mail [to] please fill them out, and fill them out correctly so that we get an accurate count,” Loftin said.