Expert suggests variant deadlier
U.K. adviser stresses more research on virus strain needed
LONDON — There is some evidence that a new coronavirus variant first identified in southeast England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the British government’s chief scientific adviser said Friday — though he stressed that the data is uncertain.
Patrick Vallance said at a news conference “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for 1,000 people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to unfortunately die.”
“With the new variant, for 1,000 people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and more research is needed.
He said there is growing confidence that the variant is more easily passed on than the original coronavirus strain — between 30% and 70% more transmissible.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead on covid-19, said studies were underway to look at the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
She said so far “they haven’t seen an increase in severity” but that more transmission could lead to “an overburdened health care system” and thus more deaths.
The evidence for the new variant being more deadly is in a paper prepared by a group of scientists that advises the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies.
The British scientists said that although initial analyses suggested that the strain, first identified in September, did not cause more severe disease, several more recent ones suggest it might. However, the numbers of deaths are relatively small, and case fatality rates are affected by many things including the care patients get and their age and health beyond having covid-19.
The British scientists stress that the information so far has major limitations, and that they do not know how representative the cases included in the analyses are of what’s happening throughout the country or elsewhere.
One analysis did not find an increased risk of death among people admitted to a hospital with the new strain. In another, the odds of being admitted to a hospital with the new strain compared with the previously dominant one were no different.
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said “there is quite a bit of difference in the estimated increased risk of death between the different analyses, though most, but not all, show increased risk of death,” he said.
Ian Jones, professor of virology at the University of Reading, said “the data is limited and the conclusions preliminary. However, an increased case fatality rate is certainly possible with a virus that has upped its game in transmission.”
British officials say they are confident that the vaccines that have been authorized will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa could be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about newly identified variants have triggered a spate of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Britain, and the U.K. has halted flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be further restrictions.
“We may need to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain has recorded more than 96,000 deaths, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The U.K. is currently in its third national lockdown. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues and many shops are closed, and people are required to stay largely at home.
PAID TO QUARANTINE
Meanwhile, U.K. government officials have suggested paying people to stay home if they test positive, amid concerns that too many are failing to get tested or comply with the lockdown rules.
A draft policy paper proposes payments of 500 pounds, or $685. Currently only those with the lowest incomes receive support at this level if they’re told to quarantine.
The policy, which would cost about $2.74 billion a month, would be designed to overcome people’s fear of losing income if forced to self-isolate by a positive test, according to a document dated Tuesday obtained by the Guardian and confirmed by a person familiar with the matter.
Environment Secretary George Eustice called the idea “speculation,” however, and said “no decisions have been made” when asked about the proposal in broadcast interviews Friday. A person familiar with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s thinking said the payments won’t happen and the proposal hadn’t been run past the Treasury.
“We do want to improve compliance rates with self-isolation for people who have been in contact with somebody who has tested positive, for instance, and we do want people to get that test if they have symptoms of the virus,” Eustice told LBC radio. “But this would also be a huge cost.”