Colts to test out Raiders’ chances
It’s time for the Las Vegas Raiders to identify themselves as a contender or resign themselves to another late-season fade sure to infuriate a loyal but skeptical fan base.
The Indianapolis Colts (8- 4) are a game head of the Raiders (7- 5) in the race for one of three AFC wild card berths going in to Sunday’s game at Allegiant Stadium. They provide a barometer of whether the Raiders’ playoff aspirations are legitimate.
Beat the Colts and the playoffs seem real, with the likelihood of 10 wins necessary to qualify. A loss wouldn’t take the Raiders out of contention, but they’d probably have to win their last three to get in. Based on the way they’ve played of late, that’s a tough sell.
The last time the Raiders went to the playoffs in 2016, quarterback Derek Carr was out with a broken right fibula.
“It’s been a long wait for me,” Carr said. “I would love nothing more than to be able to do that, but if we don’t win this game, it doesn’t mean anything. We have our work cut out for us against one of the best teams in the NFL . . . we’ve got to bring it. If not, they’ll come in and run us out of our own stadium.”
At first glance, the Colts look like the better all-around team, certainly better defensively and with a similar ability to be balanced on offense and spread the ball around with former AFC West nemesis Philip Rivers at quarterback.
On the flip side, the Raiders have beaten both the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints and are looking to prove something after going 1- 5 in their last six games a year ago en route to 7-9.
The question is whether the Raiders can conjure up the kind of play they did against the Chiefs and Saints after sputtering in the last two games. They lost to Atlanta 43- 6 and then needed Carr’s 46yard pass to Henry Ruggs III with five seconds left to beat the winless Jets.
“We’re excited, man. We’re playing for something,” running back Jalen Richard said. “To have that opportunity in December is amazing. I haven’t felt this for awhile, like my rookie year (2016). We had little glimpses of it last year but went on a stink and basically lost our way out of it ... we really can’t wait to play.”
Coach Jon Gruden said his team hasn’t put together a complete game all season. The Raiders will need something close to that against Indianapolis.
Nationally, the Raiders lost a lot of shine after the Falcons blowout. Then came last week, where the focus was more on how the Jets lost rather than how the Raiders won.
During a feature on the CBS weekly series “Monday Morning Quarterback,”, analysts and former Raiders quarterbacks Rich Gannon and Steve Beuerlein reluctantly conceded they didn’t see their former team being of playoff caliber.
Although Gruden wasn’t willing to commit to it, the Raiders should have some important reinforcements in the presence of running back Josh Jacobs, right tackle Trent Brown and safety Johnathan Abram. Jacobs and Abram didn’t play against the Jets. Brown has played 73 snaps all season.
“We’ve won some nailbiters. Seven of our first 12 games were on the road,” Gruden said. “It’s been a challenge. We’ve had a lot of injuries, we’ve paid the price to get here and we’ll see. We’ll see who helps us land the plane, we need some of these passengers to jump on. We’ve got a good team that’s come in here and they have the same aspirations that we do. We know we’ve got to play better.”
Some things to watch which will determine the Raiders fate:
1. RESTORING BALANCE » Richard said teams have begun to load the box on the Raiders in recognition of their commitment to the run. Assuming Brown and Jacobs return, the Raiders will be better equipped to even out their run-pass balance after being lost for the last three weeks.
It’s not necessary that the Raiders get huge rushing numbers, only that they keep their down-and- distance reasonable as well as run-pass ratio and as they say, stay on schedule. The Colts defensively are very good, with DeForest Buckner anchoring the defensive line in the middle and Darius Leonard as one of the NFL’s top sideline-tosideline linebackers.
The Colts don’t overreach and gamble so much as they stay within their assignments and run hard to the ball. Steady forward progress will be huge.
“We kind of felt we were out of synch in the run game but trying to make
that an important point this week as far as getting back together and re-establishing ourselves as a running team,” guard Denzelle Good said.
2. MAKE RIVERS THROW THEM THE BALL » Rivers plays his 29th game against the Raiders, the first 28 with the Chargers. He’s 18-10 lifetime, with 47 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions.
The Raiders know Rivers will take chances, and he’ll give defensive backs an opportunity to make a play on the ball.
As Charles Woodson used to say about the Bears’ Jay Cutler when he played for the Packers, “We knew Jay would throw us the ball.”
It’s that kind of mindset the Raiders will need against Rivers. Rivers operates much in the way Carr does, determining the play at the line of scrimmage based on what he sees. The Colts have a no-nonsense rookie runner in Johnathan Taylor who serves as their Josh Jacobs. If Taylor is gaining steady yards the odds of getting Rivers to throw them the ball is reduced dramatically.
3. BIG PLAYS ARE A MUST » The Raiders beat Indianapolis 31-24 on Sept. 29 of last season on the strength of two big plays — a 60-yard touchdown run on a reverse by recently acquired Trevor Davis and a 30-yard interception return by Erik Harris against Jacoby Brissett.
Ruggs would fit nicely on a reverse or deep strike.