Late-counted Arizona votes will decide winners of key races

PHOENIX >> A key question hangs over the more than 600,000 ballots left to be tallied in Arizona: Do they look like the state’s late-counted 2020 ballots that overwhelmingly went to Republicans or break down more like the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won most of them?

The answer will determine who wins extremely tight races for U.S. Senate and House, as well as governor, secretary of state and attorney general. At stake are control of Congress and the rules for the 2024 presidential election in a crucial battleground state.

The races remained too early to call two days after the midterm election, with about a quarter of the ballots still left to count.

Former President Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election have rejiggered voting patterns across the country and especially in Arizona, which has played a starring role in conspiracy theories suggesting the outcome was tainted. That makes it even more complicated for news organizations to declare winners because historical data doesn’t necessarily apply.

After opening big leads on election night, when only mail ballots returned early were reported, Democrats saw their margins dwindle as more Republican ballots were counted. Democratic leads improved Thursday afternoon in the races for Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general when Pima County, which includes left-leaning Tucson, reported new results. New results were expected later Thursday from Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix area and more than 60% of Arizona voters.

It could take several days before it’s clear who won some of the closer contests, as was the case in the 2018 and 2020 elections. Maricopa County officials emphasized that this year’s process was no different than in previous years.

“This is how things work in Arizona and have for decades,” said Bill Gates, the Republican chair of the county board of supervisors. He said staff are working 14 to 18 hours a day and will continue through the weekend.

“We are doing what we can and still maintaining accuracy,” Gates said.

Protracted vote counts have for years been a staple of elections in Arizona, where the overwhelming majority of people vote with mail ballots and many wait until the last minute to return them. But as Arizona has morphed from a GOP stronghold to a competitive battleground, the delays have increasingly become a source of national anxiety for partisans on both sides.

The races remained too early to call two days after the midterm election, with about a quarter of the ballots still left to count.