Who’s in, who’s out: Tracking congressional races
Talk of Connecticut’s 2024 election heated up briefly last week, more than a year before voters here head to the polls, as U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes’ staff told reporters that she planned to run for another term in Congress.
Hayes, a Democrat from the state’s most conservative corner, faces the likelihood of another expensive reelection fight in a nationally watched race. For the rest of the state’s delegation, meanwhile, the biggest question initially is whether the incumbents — including two who have spent more than two decades in office — will run again. CT Insider reached out to each of them to confirm their plans.
In addition, a few challengers have emerged publicly and through statements filed with the Federal Election Commission, which serves as the record keeper for federal candidates.
The Cook Political Report has reported that most of Connecticut is expected to remain in Democrats’ hands in 2024. The state’s partisan vote index — a measure of how much more Democratic or Republican an area is compared to the country as whole in presidential elections — shows Democrats with a seven-point edge in Connecticut.
U.S. Senate: Incumbent Chris Murphy, D-Hartford
Murphy actually preceded Hayes by several months in announcing his reelection plans. He told the CT Mirror in March that he would seek a third term as the state’s junior U.S. senator.
Since then, Murphy has been a prolific fundraiser, pulling in more than $1.5 million to add to his already sizable war chest. His only declared opponents are a pair of Republicans, John Flynn and Robert Hyde, who have come under scrutiny for their tactics in previously unsuccessful campaigns.
Murphy has honed his reputation as a national leader in the effort to enact stricter gun laws since he represented the district that included Newtown in the U.S House of Representatives. In two previous elections, in 2012 and 2018, he won by 10 and 20 points, respectively.
Cook rating: Solid Democrat; Partisan Voter Index (PVI D+7)
1st District: Incumbent John Larson, D-East Hartford
After a court ruling helped Larson avoid a potential primary challenge from the left in 2022, Larson is planning to mount another reelection bid next year, campaign manager Josh Barnes said Monday.
“Congressman Larson remains engaged with the issues facing everyday Americans, especially the need to protect and strengthen Social Security,” Barnes said in a statement Monday. “He is focused on helping Democrats succeed in the upcoming municipal elections and winning back the House majority, and fully expects to run again.”
Larson served as a top lieutenant to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as chair of the House Democratic Caucus between 2009 and 2013, helping to pass signature legislation, such as the Affordable Care Act. Larson is also the top Democrat on the Congressional subcommittee overseeing Social Security.
If Larson faces any threat to another two-year term in Congress,
it will likely come from his left in the form of another primary challenge, though no other candidates have announced plans to run.
The 1st District, which includes Hartford and its surrounding suburbs in the shape of a backwards C, is the most heavily Democratic of the state’s five Congressional districts. Larson won his last race in 2022 with more than 61 percent of the vote.
Cook rating: Solid Democrat (PVI D+12)
2nd District: Incumbent Joe Courtney, D-Vernon
During the nine terms he has spent in Congress, Courtney has perhaps become best known for his nickname: “Two Sub Joe.”
Courtney is hoping to carry on the moniker — which stems from his efforts to ensure the continued production of submarines at the sprawling Electric Boat works in Groton— by running for reelection next year, according to campaign spokesperson Jerica Chosich.
On the Republican side, former state Rep. Mike France of Ledyard confirmed his decision to run in 2024, setting up a potential rematch of the last election, which Courtney won with over 58 percent of the vote.
While Courtney won his first Congressional election in 2006 by less than 100 votes, he has not faced a particularly close elecwestern tion since, despite several wellfinanced GOP challengers. The district encompasses most of the eastern half of the state.
Cook rating: Solid Democrat (PVI D+3)
3rd District: Incumbent Rosa DeLauro, D-New Haven
Arguably Connecticut’s most powerful member of Congress, DeLauro is running for reelection and a chance to win back the chair of the House Appropriations Committee in 2024.
Her campaign manager, Chris Carroll, confirmed as much on Monday. If elected to another term, it would be DeLauro’s 18th term in Washington, D.C. — her 32 years of service is more than anyone in the state’s history except for Chris Dodd, who split 36 years between the House and Senate.
The district, centered around New Haven and its suburbs, has narrowed slightly in terms of its partisan split, though it has still heavily favored Democrats. DeLauro won her last election with more than 56 percent of the vote against Republican Lesley DeNardis.
Cook rating: Solid Democrat (PVI D+7)
4th District: Incumbent Jim Himes, D-Greenwich
Himes, a former Goldman Sachs executive, is running for a ninth term representing southConnecticut — including most of Fairfield County — his campaign manager, Francesca Capodilupo, confirmed on Monday.
Once a bastion of old-school Republicanism, the district has drifted increasingly left since 2008 when Himes ousted Connecticut’s last GOP holdout in Washington, former U.S Rep. Chris Shays. In addition to the affluent Gold Coast suburbs of Greenwich, Darien and Westport, the 4th District also includes larger, diverse cities such as Stamford and Bridgeport.
In 2022, Himes garnered more than 59 percent of the vote in a victory over Darien First Selectwoman Jayme Stevenson.
Cook rating: Solid Democrat (PVI D+13)
5th District: Incumbent Jahana Hayes, D-Wolcott
Even before Hayes announced her reelection campaign last week, Republicans had set their sights on the congresswoman’s district, which stretches from the cities of Danbury and Waterbury into the Litchfield Hills, Farmington Valley and parts of New Haven County.
Hayes survived by a margin of just 1,842 votes in 2022, when she faced an aggressive challenge from Republican George Logan, a former state senator from Meriden.
Connecticut Republican Party Chairman Ben Proto told CT Insider last week that Logan is considering a potential rematch against Hayes. Logan was a successful fundraiser in 2022, raking in more than $1.2 million over the course of the campaign.
Hayes is the first Black woman elected to Congress from Connecticut. Logan would be the second Black Republican to serve Connecticut in Congress, after former U.S. Gary Franks, who represented the 5th District from 1991 to 1997.
Logan did not return a call seeking comment on Monday.
Cook rating: Lean Republican (PVI D+3)