Above-average winter temperatures predicted

Connecticut and most of the Northeast are expected to have above-average temperatures this winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast released Thursday.

It also says there is an equal chance for above or below normal precipitation. That means there’s no tilt in the odds of having more or less precipitation.

The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are favored to change.

“The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend across the Southern tier of the U.S. from the Southwest, across the Gulf states, and into the Southeast. More modest probabilities for warmer temperatures are forecast in the southern parts of the west coast, and from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Last winter’s outlook for the Northeast was similar to the one issued Thursday. It called for above-average temperatures and an equal chance of precipitation.

Last winter, January’s average temperature in Connecticut was 7 degrees above normal, February’s was 4.8 degrees warmer and March’s average was 4.9 degrees above normal, according to the National Weather Service.

Snow was also a rarity in Connecticut last winter with just 10.2 inches recorded at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. The average snowfall for Stratford is 25.2 inches.

Even in Norfolk, the Icebox of

Connecticut, last winter’s snowfall was 26 inches below normal.

The report did offer some good news.

NOAA’s report said drought conditions are expected to improve in New England this winter.

Large areas of drought continue to extend over the western half of the U.S., with parts of the Northeast also experiencing drought and near-record low stream flows. With a La Niña climate pattern in place, southern parts of the U.S. may experience expanded and intensifying drought during the winter months.

All of Connecticut is under drought or abnormally dry conditions, according to U.S. Drought Monitor. Nearly 39 percent of the state (mainly in northern and eastern Connecticut) has extreme drought conditions.

Connecticut remains well behind in rainfall for this year. Hartford’s rainfall to date is 12.7 inches below normal and New Haven is 12.24 inches below average for the year.

The following are some other winter forecasts.

Weather Channel

Winter could begin cold in parts of the central and eastern states but then transition to a milder finish, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Co.

Above-average temperatures are expected in most locations from the southern and eastern states to the West Coast. Parts of Montana and North Dakota are the only areas where somewhat colder-than-average temperatures are expected.

Connecticut is in the zone for “near or slightly above temperatures” for December. Aboveaverage temperatures are forecast for January and February.

Snowfall for Connecticut, The

Weather Co. said, is expected to be about 2 inches below average.

But each month of this winter, December through February, could have temperature fluctuations that differ from this overall trend, the outlook said.

AccuWeather

“Another overall mild winter is possible for much of the eastern U.S.," senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, referring to how temperatures will compare to the 30-year averages in many places.

However, he expects "nearnormal snowfall across much of New England.”

Pastelok said winter temperatures in Connecticut are expected to be 2 to 3 degrees above average.His forecast for Eastern cities has slightly below-average snowfall, with 18 to 23 inches in New York and 30 to 40 inches in Boston.