Gap between the haves and have-nots is growing
Though six weeks, the NFL has evolved into a league of haves and the have-nots. Ten teams have zero or one win. According to projections from the statistics website FiveThirtyEight, there could be eight teams that end the season with 11 or more losses. They currently have nine teams winning at least 10 games, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers all going 12-4.
If you add in a pair of 2-3 teams — the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions — the combined records of the NFL’s bottom 12 are 13-54-2. Why does this matter? Because those bottom-feeders have combined to win just four games against teams with winning or .500 records, and it could end up having an impact on which winning teams ascend to the top of the standings.
Which playoff contenders benefit the most? These five stand out:
Seattle Seahawks: They are off to a 5-0 start that has been aided by playing four teams with losing records and what is now a 3-3 Miami Dolphins team. All of those were non-division games, and outside of a matchup with the Buffalo Bills, the rest of their non-division schedule looks like a cake walk.
The Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Washington Football Team and New York Jets have combined records of 3-20-1, creating the possibility of the Seahawks going 10-0 or 9-1 in non-division games — putting them in position to win half of their divisional matchups and still earn 12 or 13 wins and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Dallas Cowboys: They were already one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams, and then things got worse when star quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury. In Andy Dalton’s first start Monday night, they were blown out at home by the Arizona Cardinals, 38-10. Their defense hasn’t been able to stop anybody all year.
However, in the struggling NFC East, Dallas remains in first place with a 2-4 record. The Cowboys still have a path to the division title, which would give them the fourth seed and a home playoff game, as they play just three games in their final 10 against teams .500 or better. Over the next five weeks they play four games against teams that currently have just one win: Washington (twice), Philadelphia and Minnesota.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: While Dallas has the easiest closing schedule, the Bucs have the second-easiest — and after Sunday’s 38-10 win over the Green Bay Packers, they might have the inside track to win the NFC South title over the New Orleans Saints.
In many ways, Tampa may have already played the toughest part of its schedule. In the final 10 games, the Bucs play the Saints at home, but their only other games against winning teams is a road trip to play the Las Vegas Raiders and home games against the Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. With Tom Brady leading the offense and the defense rounding into shape, the Bucs look like contenders.
Cleveland Browns: Blowout losses to the Ravens and Steelers confirmed the Browns weren’t going to be challenging for the AFC North title. But their schedule indicates they have a great chance to be one of the AFC’s final wild-card teams.
They have the third-easiest closing slate, aided by the AFC North getting to face all the NFC East teams this season. At 4-2, Cleveland has a great chance of getting to 10 wins.
Las Vegas Raiders: Even though the Raiders stunned everyone by beating the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, no one thinks they will win the AFC West. But they have five remaining AFC West games left and a good chance to go 4-2 or 5-1 in the division, and a favorable non-division schedule with opponents like the Jets and Atlanta Falcons. They could get to nine or 10 wins and make the AFC playoffs as a wild card.