Conn. expects 60% of teachers and people 55-64 to sign up
In the months since the first person was vaccinated against the coronavirus, 602,697 people in Connecticut have received at least one dose. In a single day, on March 1, about 610,000 people will become eligible.
How the state will handle the increased number of patients is largely a numbers game, with a complex, growing network designed to inject tens of thousands of arms every day. Its success depends on an everincreasing supply of dozes — and a demand that falls short of what public health officials suggest.
When Gov. Ned Lamont announced Monday that the vaccine would be rolled out by age group, he and other state officials described three-week intervals, an approximate time frame for each group. March 1 would launch vaccinations for people age 55 to 64, which is about 515,000 Connecticut residents, or 14.6 percent of the state’s total population.
Lamont also said teachers, other in-school workers and child care professionals would be eligible on March 1, a group that comprises 160,000 people.
Subtract the 63,000 or so people who already received the vaccine in the 55-64 age group and you have more people eligible on that one day than have already received the vaccine since Dec. 14.
But no one expects 100 per
cent of that group to seek a shot in the arm immediately, and some never will.
“We know not everyone’s going to take the vaccine when it’s offered the first time around,” said Josh Geballe, the state’s chief operating officer. “We assume a 60 percent uptake.”
That means Connecticut expects about 360,000 people to get the vaccine in the first weeks of March.
Supply should not be a problem, Geballe said. Connecticut expects to average at least 105,000 to 110,000 doses delivered every week, meaning the state can “work our way through that group in three to four weeks.”
The next group, people age 45 to 54, become eligible on March 22. That’s about 480,000 people, and Geballe said he expects 400,000 people or fewer to take advantage.
Up after that are people between the ages of 35 and 44, another 427,000 on April 12 — minus teachers and health care professionals already vaccinated.
Then the largest group becomes eligible on May 3. There are about 875,000 people in Connecticut between the ages of 16 and 34.
To put the picture in broad perspective: Connecticut has about 2.9 million people 16 and older. A goal of vaccinating 70 percent, or just over 2 million, means about 1.45 million more need to be inoculated. First vaccinations can be
done in three months or less if the supply expands from the current level of about 90,000 doses a week.
Geballe said he expects vaccine supply, provided by the federal government, to meet that level of demand.
“All throughout this, the
allocations are continuing to increase,” he said. “Things will continue to accelerate as we go forward.”
Of course, it’s not so cut-and-dried. “Not everyone will get vaccinated on May 3,” Geballe said, or any one date, and there will be overlap. Some people who were eligible earlier in the year but chose to wait will sign up.
Some states have had issues with the sign-up process. Massachusetts’ statewide vaccination signup website crashed earlier this month. “Unfortunately, the system did not scale fast enough to accommodate the increased volume," said PrepMod, the company that developed the site, in a statement to WBUR.
The Los Angeles Times reported that California’s signup site was plagued with software hiccups, and software issues were blamed for similar problems in Philadelphia.
Those problems have encouraged some states to move to pre-registration, allowing everyone to input their information in advance so that they can be alerted when a slot becomes available.
“We need to make it as easy as possible for every Minnesotan to get the vaccine when it’s their turn,” said Minnesota Gov. Tim Waltz when his state announced a statewide preregistration system.
But Geballe said he did not foresee similar issues in Connecticut and, as such, residents cannot register until their eligibility date comes around.
“I don't think our challenge is that people aren't able to pre-register right now,” he said. Instead, the goal is to “make it as easy as possible for people, once they become eligible, to get an appointment.”
Danbury schools Superintendent Sal Pascarella co-wrote a letter on behalf of a number of Connecticut school districts calling on Gov. Ned Lamont to supply their districts with more state aid after he put a hold on scheduled increases to the districts’ grant money.
The letter states the superintendents’ opposition to Lamont’s “pause” in state funding escalations in his proposed biennial budget, which would take more than $109 million away from Connecticut’s 53 Alliance District and urban schools, they claim.
The letter is co-authored by superintendents from Danbury, Meriden, Vernon and East Hartford and signed by numerous district leaders including those from Bridgeport, New Haven, Norwalk, Stamford, Middletown and Torrington, among others.
“As such, we urge you to reconsider this strategy and reinstate the original phase-in schedule for all Alliance Districts,” the letter read. Alliance schools are defined as the lowest performing districts in Connecticut, which are eligible for additional funds, according to the state.
“This shift will allow us to fund our general budget obligations, help cushion distressed municipalities from large tax increases, and avoid utilizing onetime federal funding intended for COVID-related purposes to fund ongoing operations,” it continued.
The state conceived a grant formula to give Alliance District schools and others in some urban districts representing “fiscally challenged communities” state funding to address a “persistent state achievement gap,” according to the letter.
These schools are typically awarded an increase in grant money annually to help provide vital services to students. However, Lamont’s “pause” will discontinue the planned increases leaving these schools at a loss.
Danbury was scheduled to see an increase of more than $2.5 million for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 school years.
Lamont’s spokesman Max Reiss said more $440 million in federal funding is available to school districts across Connecticut including the state’s Alliance and urban districts.
Connecticut districts are also preparing to receive their slice of a federal COVID-19 relief grant, which they can use to supplement missing grant money for the next two years by infusing millions of federal relief dollars into their budgets for COVID-related expenses.
“These funds can and should be used for school leaders to provide the resources necessary to address the needs of the districts and focus on learning loss and recovery as well as continued safe reopening,” Reiss said. “The governor’s budget mitigates the need for broad-based tax increases, relying on federal aid and partial use of the state’s Budget Reserve Fund while the state’s economy and revenues continue to recover.”
While this aid helps relieve some pressure in the interim, superintendents said it will be burdensome to their long-term fiscal plans.
“By ‘pausing’ the ECS increase formula [grant money increases] and supplanting this phase in approach with funds not intended for general budget activities, Connecticut adopts a financial strategy that will create large-scale disruptions for fiscal year 2024,” the letter read.
Using the federal aid from Congress will add to their current budgets, but leave a hole when that aid is no longer available in two years, forcing them to seek local and state help in filling their budgetary gaps.
When districts mitigate the “large financial shortfalls” associated with using the “one-time funding” from Congress, local governments will have to navigate the following three ripple effects.
Districts will either lean on already economically challenged municipalities to subsidize their funding, seek “massive increases in state aid,” or be pushed to reduce supportive programs for students in the aftermath of the state’s grant cuts, the letter said.
“While we recognize that there are no easy answers, we are eager to engage with you and your team on helping design a sustainable, long-term financial plan that can preserve our states commitment to equity, stimulate academic recovery and best utilize the federal dollars,” the letter stated.
Reiss said as the budget process continues, the administration will “continue to engage with local stakeholders, those who work with students, and the General Assembly on a sustainable path forward.”