Who represents you in Congress? That might change in these CT towns

A shift in the state’s population, and a small increase over the last 10 years, is causing a realignment of the five U.S. congressional districts to evenly divide Connecticut’s 3,605,944 residents.

That means musical towns, at least in a few places. We don’t know which towns that will be as a group of legislators hammers out the plan. But we have educated guesses based on conversations.

The 2nd Congressional District, the state’s most rural area that takes up the eastern half of the state, needs to expand by 21,288 people.

The 4th District, mostly Fairfield County in the southwest, needs to cede 25,627 residents because of a population influx that has vaulted Stamford to the state’s second-largest city, finally passing New Haven.

And, to achieve ideal balance of 721,189 residents in each of the five congressional districts, the New Havencentric 3rd District would need 5,829 more people. The 5th District in the state’s northwest needs to shift about 5,024 residents elsewhere.

And the 1st District, with a “lobster claw” semi-circling to the west from U.S. Rep. John Larson’s Hartford base, needs another 3,535 people.

So, the state’s nine-member Reapportionment Commission, which includes four Republican and four Democratic members of the General Assembly, along with a former state senator to potentially break tie votes, is negotiating a new map. State House and Senate maps were recently agreed upon.

Heading toward a likely deadline of Christmas week, her are a few communities that could be in play:

Shelton

Most of the city of 40,869 residents is represented by U.S. Rep. Jim Himes, D-4, but a sliver of 2,358 people who live along the west bank of the Housatonic River are in the 3rd, represented by veteran U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro. More of Shelton could move into the 3rd as part of the dominoes of sending people to the 2nd, represented by seventh-term U.S. Rep Joe Courtney.

Oxford

Now the northeastern limit of the 4th District, the town of 12,706 could shift into the 5th, which would make the 5th slightly more Republican when secondterm U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-5, a Democrat, has what is likely the state’s most-competitive challenge in Nov. 2022. Oxford could also relocate to the 3rd, depending on where the 2nd District’s new western border may be redrawn.

Monroe

In the northern tier of the 4th District, this town of 18,825 could shift to the 5th depending on how the closed-door negotiations proceed and the numbers of residents needed for a balance among the five districts, as the 2nd District moves westward.

Torrington

The 5th District needs to subtract 5,024, so Hayes might see a larger portion of Torrington, population 35,515, move into U.S. Rep. John Larson’s Hartford-centric 1st District, depending on the new western border of the 2nd District. The 1st District already includes nearly 21,000 people in Torrington.

Guilford

The shoreline town of 22,073 people in the 3rd District could be handed over to the 2nd, which needs to add population by about that amount. That’s the scenario that has parts of Shelton or Oxford joining the 3rd to make up for the loss of Guilford.

Glastonbury

Like Guilford, this town is a possible place to move more people into the 2nd, as it lies along the Route 2 corridor. The 2nd District already contains about 1,881 people in the town, with 32,546 in the 1st District. Bumping some into the 2nd would mean the 1st District, which U.S. Rep John Larson has represented since 1999, would need more residents from elsewhere.

Ridgefield

With a population of 25,033, the New York border town would be ripe to move up into the 5th District from the 4th District’s northwest corner, if the Glastonbury move were to set off a domino effect. The northern part of Ridgefield is closely linked socially and economically to adjacent Danbury, a stalwart 5th District city.

Middletown

About 4,500 residents of this city of 47,717 on a bend in the Connecticut River are in the 1st District, with the rest in the 3rd District. If the 2nd District were to expand there, the boundary would be pushed west, across the river, from East Hampton. But it might not make sense to have one city fall into three congressional districts.