Putting a COVID ‘swell’ in perspective

There's something about the number 10, isn't there? It could be the arrival of double digits. Or years of Billboard spotlighting top 10 hits. Maybe it's just David Letterman's fault.

But arriving at 10 reliably draws attention. So when we see it in Wednesday's headlines (“COVID positivity rate hits 10% in state”), it demands pause in a way 1 percent to 9 percent never could.

The good news is there's no need to panic. COVID fatigue set in so long ago that it no longer trends. The top 10 Google trending search of 2021 starts with “NBA,” followed by “DMX,” “Gabby Petito,” “Kyle Rittenhouse” and “Brian Laundrie.” Most were figures in the darkest news stories of last year, topped enigmatically by a search for professional basketball.

Most trends are just that. They are ephemeral, losing hold on the public consciousness with the passage of time. The top Google meme of the year was “Bernie Sanders' mittens,” which already seems like it's from another century.

Here's the thing about COVID, though: It's here to stay.

Connecticut Department of Public Health Commissioner Manisha Juthani on Wednesday described the rise of the state's COVID positivity rate to 10 percent as a “swell.”

“People have talked about an uptick and a spike and a surge or whatever,” Juthani said. “I kind of like ‘swell' because it's sort of like a rolling tumble up, and we don't know where it's going to go, when it's gonna come down.”

We don't like “swell,” “spike” or “surge.” We'd prefer to see that 10 quickly fade to a zero.

But Juthani's context is important. A 10 percent positivity rate after the rise of the omicron variant in the early months of the year translated to more state hospitalizations, about 1,270.

As the tide “swells” back to 10 percent this week, hospitalizations are at 245. That's a number of patients hospitals say they can effectively manage.

It doesn't mean the figures are 100 percent reliable. Negative rapid tests are no longer required to be reported to the state. And many people have learned to test themselves, and to care for most related ailments at home.

Juthani also acknowledged something that took a while for anyone, including health experts, to acknowledge during this pandemic: There's no reliable forecast of future COVID trends.

“We don't know,” Juthani acknowledged. “It's anybody's guess. We just don't know where this is gonna go.”

We don't like to guess. But it's certainly not going away like some Google searches (think “Squid Games”).

Most Connecticut residents seem to have packed their masks away into personal time capsules. It never hurts to keep them handy. There are reasons they are still required at most medical offices. And practical people always reap the benefits of wisely following instructions to use masks when painting the kitchen, operating a chainsaw or handling chemicals. It's just smart.

COVID will never really be over, but it's offered some life lessons that should linger. Anyone who averted even a sniffle during the last couple years now understands the benefits of the likes of handwashing. It's the simple things that will prevent “COVID” from trending again.

COVID fatigue set in so long ago that it no longer trends.