Braves have edge on Mets, now and into the winter
NEW YORK — Hard as it must be for the Citi Field faithful to accept the fact the Mets won 101 games, the second-most wins in their history, and still wound up as a wild card, there is this dose of hard reality: The Braves were simply a better team.
Interestingly, when all the baseball pundits were making their World Series predictions both before the season and during it, they never mentioned the Braves, even though they are the defending world champions. If not the Dodgers representing the National League, they said, then definitely the Mets on the strength of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, their two top-of-the-rotation “infallibles.”
Perhaps part of the reason for the pundits’ dismissal of the Braves is their recent habit of playing possum much of the season before finally making their move come nitty-gritty time. As Buck Showalter’s Mets were taking control of the NL East from Day 1 this year, the Braves did not get over .500 until June 5 and trailed the Mets by seven games on Aug. 10. And a year ago, they were under .500 as late as Aug. 4.
It wasn’t until that fateful face-to-face series in Atlanta last week that folks were reminded just how good the defending world champions really are. How good? For one thing, they have All-Star caliber players at six positions — catcher (Travis d’Arnaud), first base (Matt Olson), shortstop (Dansby Swanson), third base (Austin Riley), right field (Ronald Acuna Jr.) and center field (Michael Harris II). In fact, the only position in which you could say the Mets have a clear edge over the Braves is second base with Jeff McNeil.
As for the pitching, the Braves may not have marquee aces like Scherzer and deGrom, but their starting rotation of Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton proved to be just as formidable. If the Braves had any special need at the trade deadline it was in the bullpen which was addressed when GM Alex Anthopoulos acquired Raisel Iglesias for a marginal minor league starter from the Angels. Iglesias was unhittable (0.34 ERA in 28 appearances) and figures to be a key weapon for manager Brian Snitker in the playoffs — which cast further criticism on Mets’ GM Billy Eppler for failing to land either a lefty reliever or a power bat for Showalter.
But in fairness to Eppler, no one could have foreseen Starling Marte going down with a broken finger, and after the dubious trade of top prospect center fielder Pete CrowArmstrong for Javy Baez last year, it’s understandable why Eppler was reluctant to deal away any other highly regarded prospects for rentals like the Red Sox’s J.D. Martinez or the Cubs’ Willson Contreras.
Above and beyond Scherzer, at 38, proving to be quite vincible his last two starts against the Braves and Padres, Eppler knows he’s got a ton of work to do this winter to assure the Mets of being competitive with the Braves, starting with re-signing Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo and three-fifths of his starting rotation, deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. Above that, the Mets still need another power bat but possibly with their payroll stretched to the max, they may have to look from within in Brett Baty.
By contrast, the largely homegrown Braves (Riley, Harris, Strider, Wright and infielder Vaughn Grissom were all procured through the draft while Acuna, second baseman Ozzie Albies and backup catcher William Contreras were all international signs) have only one significant free agent in Swanson. He, however, will be challenging for Anthopoulos, who made it a point this year to sign all his young stars, Riley, Harris and Olson (along with Acuna and Albies last year) to long-term contracts. Swanson, who turns 29 next February, is likely going to command an 8-10 year deal but, as proven last year when they held the line on five years with Freddie Freeman, the Braves just don’t do long-term deals that take players into their late 30s.
Interestingly, Swanson, a Georgia native, has the same agent, Casey Close, as Freeman so this figures to be the most-watched free agent negotiation of the winter. But if things go south as they did with Freeman, the Braves have a readymade shortstop replacement in Grissom, who hit .291 with five homers and 18 RBIs in 41 games as a lateseason call-up this year.
So the Mets-Braves competition goes on, beyond the three-game season-end series in Atlanta that ultimately decided the NL East and into this winter, but the slight edge the Braves had during season may be looming much larger this winter.