Some teams to be wary of as you fill out your NCAA bracket
March Madness wouldn’t be March Madness without the excitement of those early upsets in the NCAA Tournament.
The 68-team field won’t be announced until Sunday, but it’s a safe bet that one or more high seeds will get bounced early.
Purdue was a 231⁄2-point favorite when it went out in the first round to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year — another in a line of tournament clunkers for the Boilermakers. Maybe it was because Purdue’s guards couldn’t make shots. Maybe Fairleigh Dickinson’s small lineup bothered the Boilermakers.
Kihei Clark’s memorably bad pass set up JP Pegues’ winning 3-pointer in No. 13 Furman’s upset of No. 4 Virginia last year, but the matchup did the Cavaliers no favors. Furman plays at a high tempo and spreads the floor. Virginia goes slow and its defense had difficulty guarding the perimeter, allowing Furman to stay in the game.
The odds of various teams winning the national title are fun to consider — as of Tuesday, injury-riddled blueblood Kansas is a 35-1 long shot, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while San Diego State is 75-1 a year after crashing the national title game. Different season, different team.
Here are some projected high seeds that could be on upset alert the first weekend of the tournament:
ALABAMA
The Crimson Tide can win a scoring contest against anybody. The question is whether they can play enough defense to win a game if the pace becomes grinding, as often happens in the tournament.
DUKE
First, the Blue Devils are among the teams fully capable of reaching the Final Four. They went into the ACC Tournament 8-2 in their last 10 games, and most of those wins weren’t close. But there’s been a drop in rim protection since Derek Lively II left after last season. There’s also been a late-season injury to freshman guard Caleb Foster — a part-time starter — that has left him wearing a protective boot on his right foot.
IOWA STATE
The Cyclones have been fabulous defensively in three seasons under T.J. Otzelberger, and they beat Houston, Kansas and BYU while going 18-0 at Hilton Coliseum this season. Thing is, almost half of those home wins came against weak nonconference opponents that inflated their NET ranking.
KANSAS
Big 12 scoring leader Kevin McCullar, big man Hunter Dickinson and freshman Johnny Furphy headline a strong starting five. But McCullar tweaked a bone bruise in his knee and Dickinson dislocated a shoulder, and both will miss the Big 12
Tournament. MARQUETTE
Marquette is another example of how a late-season injury to a key player could be ruinous. Tyler Kolek has missed the last three games with a strained oblique and was ruled out of the Big East Tournament opener Thursday.
PURDUE
The Boilermakers seem likely to land another No. 1 seed and are on the list only because of their recent history: a firstround loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, a Sweet 16 loss to No. 15 Saint Peter’s in ‘22 and a first-round loss to No. 13 North Texas in ’21.