Looking ahead to the 2022 primaries in Ohio
A year out from November 2022’s statewide election is as good a time as any to risk predicting who’ll run for what, and win, subject to Ohio’s May 3 primary election:
U.S. senator: The Republican nominee will be former State Treasurer Josh Mandel or “Hillbilly Elegy” author and entrepreneur J.D. Vance. The Democratic nominee will be U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, of suburban Warren (Ryan’s being challenged for the nomination by Columbus Democrat Morgan Harper).
Next year’s election will be a mid-presidential-term election, with Democrat Joe Biden in the White House. Political lore says candidates of the non-presidential party do well in midterm elections (e.g., Virginia’s gubernatorial election and, almost, New Jersey’s). Advantage: Republicans Mandel or Vance, unless gasoline prices fall and food prices flatten, in which Ryan has a fighting chance.
Governor: Incumbent Republican Mike DeWine vs. former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley or former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley. No one likes a family fight more than Democrats, so the Cranley-Whaley fight will be … spirited.
GOP challengers (e.g., ex-Rep. Jim Renacci of Wadsworth) nip at DeWine’s heels, but he’s a moderate conservative, has been tacking rightward to soothe the right wing:
Besides DeWine’s good stewardship of Ohio’s finances and his wise quarterbacking of the COVID19 response, the last time a Republican governor failed to win re-election in Ohio was in 1958 — 63 years ago.
Supreme Court chief justice: Justices Jennifer Brunner (a Democrat) and Sharon Kennedy (a Republican) want to succeed retiring Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor. For the first time in over 100 years, party labels will accompany names of Supreme Court candidates. Conventional wisdom has been that unlabeled Supreme Court ballots benefited Republican candidates. But the GOP-run legislature evidently doesn’t believe that.
Even with the new ballot format, though, judicial candidates are still forbidden to say much of anything when they campaign, so voters will still have to play name games.
The Ohio General Assembly: Come what may in assorted courtrooms over the gerrymander, Republicans have an advantage in money and history and will likely keep control of the state Senate and the Ohio House. No one wants to say it out loud, but House Democrats — like House Republicans from 1973 through 1994 – appear to have become accustomed to being the minority party, as they have been in Ohio’s Senate since 1985.
Ultimately, like or loath what GOP General Assembly members do in Columbus, Republicans must govern, despite their faction fights, and that takes work. It also attracts campaign donations. In contrast, Democrats get to criticize the GOP majority without breaking into a sweat.
It’s likely Republicans will emerge in November 2022 with intact majorities in Ohio’s House and Senate. So maybe Republicans can stop politicking and address this fact:
From 1959 through 2020, real per capita personal income in Ohio grew at an average annual rate of 2.07% – ranking 47th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia; Ohioans have been losing ground for more than three generations.
That should be the statewide issue in 2022.