South Carolina vote tells us something deadly serious
In the South Carolina Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump defeated rival Nikki Haley in her home state. Ordinarily, this might feel like big news, as the Palmetto State tends to host one of the most important early contests.
But the vote feels irrelevant: The 2024 Republican primary isn’t and never has been a competitive primary. Trump simply wasn’t going to lose a contest for the hearts and minds of the Republican base. Ideologically, psychologically, even spiritually— it’s the Trump party through and through.
I and others have been arguing this for years now. Yet during those same years, many prominent people in politics and the media deluded themselves into thinking he might be dethroned. They have been wrong every time and continued to be wrong long after the strength of Trump’s grip on the GOP could not be denied.
There’s a lesson to be learned from this track record of failure. Trump’s persistence tells us something critical about the nature of the current Republican party — and why it’s become a danger to American democracy.
Ever since the early stages of the 2016 GOP primary, the same pattern has repeated itself over and over again: Some new development that looked politically dangerous for Trump ends up not mattering at all. This happened so many times in the 2016 election cycle that it became a running joke during the campaign.
The pattern continued through Trump’s presidency, and most strikingly after Jan. 6, when Trump managed to maintain majority support in the GOP after inciting an honest-to-god insurrection.
While DeSantis briefly enjoyed hype that he might be a Trump-killer, his polling numbers eventually collapsed and attention was turned to Haley. In mid-January, pundit Jonathan Rauch gave Haley roughly a 40% chance to win the primary. Then she lost by double digits in her supposed stronghold of New Hampshire, and the writing was on the wall in big, bold letters.
None of this speculation tracked Trump’s poll numbers. The former president consistently led in the polling averages, generally by wide margins. So why did so many get this so wrong?
Sometimes, the explanation is mundane wishcasting: centrist or antiTrump Republicans desperately wishing to avoid a choice between a threat to democracy and a Democrat. But in some cases, there’s a more interesting explanation — that even some of the GOP’s critics didn’t fully appreciate what it had become.
Why does the Republican base have such unwavering faith in the man? Trump’s celebrity charisma alone isn’t enough of an explanation. Nor is his fawning coverage in the conservative media. Fox News has repeatedly tried to turn the Republican base away from Trump and toward figures like DeSantis, only to have to kiss the ring when the voters didn’t follow their lead.
The answer, at least as far as I can tell, is that Trump’s cult is the product of his unique ability to channel the cultural grievances at the heart of the GOP.
Again and again, social scientists found that the best predictor of Trump support among Republican voters is the degree to which they feel discomfort with the changing nature of American demographics and social norms. Trump has sold himself as the only person capable of fighting back against the alleged elite conspiracy behind these changes.
Trump’s appeal isn’t premised on delivering concrete policy goals, or even “owning the libs.” It is about assuaging the sense of fear and resentment at their America being replaced. Trump represents the America they know and love. His victories are their victories, his defeats their defeats.
By making his very person into a stand-in for the existential struggle for America’s soul, he has created a world where any loss represents an intolerable blow against everything good about the country. It is this deeper and darker story we must wrestle with in order to truly appreciate the stakes in the coming election.