Gambling on Oscars now more popular than ever worldwide
On Feb. 23, John Richards traveled more than 100 miles to place bets on the Oscars. He took a train from Washington, D.C., to Wilmington, Delaware, and then hopped into an Uber car to take him to a truck stop in New Jersey.
Once in that state, where bets are legal, he opened his DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 apps and spent about $1,800 on a series of wagers: Lily Gladstone for best actress, “The Creator” for best visual effects, “Maestro” for best makeup, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” for best animated film, “Oppenheimer” for best sound and “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” for best animated short.
Richards, a 40-year-old statistician at Red Carpet Rosters, a fantasy league site for film awards, has been betting on the Oscars since 2016. Before his trip to the New Jersey truck stop, he had already wagered $2,750 on this year’s awards. In addition to placing multiple bets for Gladstone, he put $70 on Emma Stone as a hedge.
Richards is one of a growing number of Oscar gamblers scattered around the world. In the United States, where gambling is regulated at the state level, seven states allow Oscar betting: Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan and New Jersey. Sports betting, however, is allowed in 38 states and the District of Columbia. It became legal in 2018 after the Supreme Court overturned a 1992 law banning sports betting. Later that year, the first Oscar market opened in New Jersey.
Because the outcomes of sports games are unknown before the matches, allowing bets on them is considered less risky than bets on awards shows, whose results are decided in advance. PwC, an accounting firm formerly known as PricewaterhouseCoopers, tabulates the votes for the Academy Awards. According to the Academy’s website, only two partners of PwC know the results before they are announced during the Oscars ceremony. In general, employees that have access to confidential information are not supposed to use that information for personal gain, a PwC spokeswoman said.
How much Americans bet on the Oscars is unknown because the major trade association for casinos, the American Gaming Association, doesn’t collect data on Oscar betting, but it estimates that Americans spent $10.26 billion on legal online sports books, like Draft Kings and BetMGM.
BetMGM, which facilitates legal Oscar betting in four U.S. states, as well as Ontario and Puerto Rico, said that this year over half of Oscar bets have been placed on best picture. Sixty-nine percent of these bets are on “Oppenheimer,”
which opened at +800 in June 2023 (meaning a $100 bet would net you $800 plus your investment). “Oppenheimer,” now a favorite, is trading at -3,000 (meaning you must bet $3,000 to win $100).
Richards watches every nominated movie before wagering. “I like to trust my gut,” he said. “I want to use the math to support my gut feeling.”
That’s how he won $200 wagering on “Moonlight,” an underdog for best picture in 2016. Similarly, he bet on “CODA,” a best picture nominee in 2022, when the odds were 25 to 1. That year, he won nearly $10,000 overall. It’s an entirely different approach from the way he and others bet on sports, where stats come first and gut feelings a distant second.
The odds can quickly change. Chris Steckman, a legal consultant for a fashion company who lives in West Hollywood, California and bets on the Oscars, pointed out that Fantasia Barrino of “The Color Purple” was a favorite for best actress in September on Bovada, an offshore sports book, but then Barrino wasn’t nominated. The current favorite is Lily Gladstone.
Steckman, 33, said he has never had a losing year betting on the Oscars. He makes anywhere from $2,500 to $4,000 every year. This year he has wagered about $1,500. “I love betting Oscars because it forces me to watch movies I kind of otherwise wouldn’t,” he said.