A perilous balance
ATLANTA — The 2024 presidential election campaign picked up Saturday where the 2020 contest left off. Or, more precisely, in a place where it never actually ended.
Georgia was so close four years ago that Republican Donald Trump finds himself indicted here for his push to “find 11,780 votes” and overturn Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Now, fresh off their Super Tuesday domination to set up a near-certain rematch, the rivals held dueling events in a state that both parties see as pivotal to winning in November.
“We’re a true battleground state now,” said U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams, an Atlanta Democrat who doubles as state party chairwoman.
Once a Republican stronghold, Georgia is now so competitive that neither party can agree on how to describe today’s divide. A “52-48 state,” said Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whose party controls state government. “We’re not blue, we’re not red,” Williams countered, but “periwinkle,” a claim she supports with Biden’s 2020 win and the two Democratic senators, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, Georgia sent to Washington.
There is agreement, at least, that Biden and Trump each have a path to victory — and plenty of obstacles along the way.
“Biden’s numbers are in the tank for a lot of good reasons, and we can certainly talk about that. And so, it makes it where Trump absolutely can win the race,” Kemp said at a recent forum sponsored by Punchbowl News. “I also think he could lose the race. I think it’s going to be a lot tougher than people realize.”
Biden’s margin was about a quarter of a percentage point in 2020. Warnock won his 2022 Senate runoff by 3 points. Kemp was elected in 2018 by 1.5 percentage points but expanded his 2022 reelection margin to 7.5 points, a blowout in a battleground state.
In each of those elections, Democrats held wide advantages in the core of metro Atlanta, where Biden was Saturday. They also performed well in Columbus and Savannah and a handful of rural, majority-Black counties. But Republicans dominated in other rural areas, small towns and the smallest cities — like Rome, where the former president appeared Saturday in the congressional district represented by archconservative firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Biden was visiting to receive the endorsement of Collective PAC, Latino Victory Fund and AAPI Victory Fund, a trio of political groups representing, respectively, Black, Latino, and Asian Americans and Pacific Island voters. The groups announced a $30 million commitment to mobilize voters on Biden’s behalf.
The trip follows first lady Jill Biden campaigning in the state, and Vice President Kamala Harris has visited Georgia many times since she and Biden were inaugurated.
The fast-growing, diversifying suburbs and exurbs of metro Atlanta, meanwhile, offer the most opportunity for swings, especially from GOP-leaning moderates disenchanted with Trump.
“This will be won or lost on the margins,” said Eric Tanenblatt, an Atlanta lawyer and longtime Republican fundraising bundler who backed Nikki Haley’s GOP bid against Trump.
Democrats have a head start in building their campaign organization and promise sustained, direct outreach to millions of Georgians — different from the pandemic-limited 2020 campaign and more like Warnock’s reelection bid.
“When you’re talking about slim margins like the one in 2020, organizing has got to be at the heart of the campaign strategy,” said Jonae Wartel, Biden’s state director and a veteran of Warnock’s operation.
Still, Biden could see a slip in any part of his coalition for any number of reasons: inflation, the Israel-Hamas war, worries over a spike in migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and broad concerns about whether he’s up to the job at 81 years old.