STORYLINES TO WATCH IN 2018
Time to Get On Garoppolo Bandwagon
You could look at last season’s highlights to see whether a second-year player looks primed to break out or a veteran looks ready to hit the wall, but fantasy football’s also about how offseason moves and camp battles change the outlooks for top prospects.
Here’s a look at several storylines that could affect your fantasy team.
Who Is The Breakout QB Of 2018?
Jared Goff seemed to come out of nowhere last season after a dismal rookie year, but he showed what can happen when you pair a quarterback in the right system (i.e., not Jeff Fisher’s) and back it with playmakers. When pressed into action, Jimmy Garoppolo closed out 2017 with four straight games with at least 15 fantasy points — not a big sum, but something he can build on with an innovative coach like Kyle Shanahan.
Based on Garoppolo’s years of experience learning under Tom Brady, I’d rank the young contenders: Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky and A.J. McCarron.
More On Mahomes
Mahomes is in his second year, but he’s a
rookie in a practical sense, and the stock of several Chiefs players with high fantasy value (Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt) hinges on an unknown: his play. Mahomes’ presumed growing pains and the arrival of Sammy Watkins could affect Hill most of all.
I also have concerns about a gunner like Mahomes managing Andy Reid’s complex West Coast offense. But, hey, we’re not grading on efficiency here. As long as Reid lets that cannon of an arm take a handful of big shots per game, who’s complaining?
The Jimmy Graham Conundrum
We’ll finally have an answer to fantasy’s chicken-and-egg question: Do the Packers not stock tight end talent because Aaron Rodgers doesn’t use them, or does Rodgers not use them because there’s not enough talent there?
Jordy Nelson’s departure makes it more likely Rodgers will lean on Graham, the free-agent acquisition, despite the emergence of Davante Adams. Coach Mike McCarthy played tight end in college and Joe Philbin, who once coached tight ends in Green Bay, returns as offensive coordinator.
Philip Rivers’ Renaissance, Part 2
Hunter Henry’s season-ending injury hurts, but Rivers still has plenty of pass catchers. Mike Pouncey joins an already improved offensive line and the Chargers defense should give Rivers a few more possessions. Also, the division’s secondaries are vulnerable, with the Broncos’ “No Fly Zone” now a shell of its former self and upheaval in Oakland and Kansas City.
The New Catch Rule
The NFL changed the standard for what’s considered a completion — for example, now reaching for the goal line is a football move — but fantasy owners should be careful about overestimating the rule’s effect on fantasy. Catch calls may convert a handful more touchdowns or extend drives, but running backs are still the premium position because of the scarcity of elite talent.
Julian Edelman’s Domino Effect
The Patriots receiver decided against challenging his four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy, which just gives him more time to recover from last preseason’s ACL injury. (Somehow even punishments pay off in New England.)
The Patriots won’t have Danny Amendola either as he left for the Dolphins. The versatile Chris Hogan stands to benefit from Edelman’s and Amendola’s absence, and James White should get some extra looks out of the backfield, but fantasy owners know not to place too much stock in any one Patriots running back.
Do The Ravens Finally Have A Wide Receiver?
Michael Crabtree could be a sneaky-good signing by the Ravens. Let’s face it, Mike Wallace was one-dimensional and Jeremy Maclin never lived up to his Philadelphia days. But Crabtree, along with John Brown and Willie Snead, may give Joe Flacco the spark he needs. If not, rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson is waiting in the wings.
Do The Seahawks Have A Running Back?
I’ve come around on rookie Rashaad Penny. Initially, I didn’t trust his selection in the first round because the Seahawks had morphed into the Patriots West when it comes to their fickle usage of running backs.
What’s Different This Time?
For one, Pete Carroll said of Penny, “We’re not just handing him the job, he has to come in here and battle.” Coaches generally don’t talk about handing rookies jobs unless it’s theirs to lose.
Also, Penny’s speed and elusiveness represents a style change in the Seattle backfield. The Seahawks have fancied bruisers in the style of Marshawn Lynch in recent seasons but have come to find most of those guys don’t have Lynch’s durability to go with it.
The Great Tarik Cohen Mystery
Fantasy owners are probably salivating picturing Matt Nagy at a chalkboard hatching devious trick plays to spring Cohen for 80-yard touchdowns. Sure there will be some of that for the speedy scatback, but what about the rest of the time? Cohen has been compared to Tyreek Hill, but how much will his usage mirror the Chief? Could he get red-zone touches like Darren
Sproles? Comparisons are fine, but the reality of his role, namely his number of touches per game, is still pretty speculative.
Is Marlon Mack A Starter?
The more precise question actually should be is he an RB1? Despite inheriting the Colts’ lead role from Frank Gore, Mack’s certainly not being drafted like one. On ESPN, for example, Tarik Cohen, Dion Lewis and Tevin Coleman were being taken ahead of him, which is absurd.
The argument is that Mack will wind up in a committee with Nyheim Hines and possibly others, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say the slippery second-year back ends up with the bulk of the carries (unlike the three mentioned above) while the smallish Hines becomes a change-of-pace back and pass-catching specialist.
Will Stefon Diggs Flourish With Kirk Cousins?
Maybe it’s former Redskin Fred Smoot openly questioning how a “completion guy” like Cousins “can’t throw outside the numbers.” Maybe I’m still appalled that it took Cousins 100 targets to connect with DeSean Jackson on 56 catches in 2016. But I worry about Cousins’ hookups with Diggs. It just seems he’s more comfortable throwing to tight ends and slot guys like Adam Thielen (see Jamison Crowder).