FLORENCE GROWS
The storm may hit the Southeast coast as a major hurricane.
The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. East Coast late next week keep growing, with officials in the Carolinas and Virginia declaring states of emergency already.
Forecast models paint an increasingly grim picture, converging on a track that would have what is now Tropical Storm Florence making a direct hit as a powerful hurricane somewhere along the Southeast coast.
Florence is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday, the National Hurricane Center said, after “a significant phase of intensification” on Sunday.
“The thinking is that Florence would head toward the Carolinas somewhere between Thursday and Friday,” said Gary Lessor, chief meteorologist at Western Connecticut State University’s Weather Center. “Then the question will be whether it shifts a little farther westward to go inland toward the central Appalachians, or drift north through the mid-Atlantic states.”
By midweek, Lessor said, New England should have a good idea of whether the storm is likely to have any impact in this region.
“A significant impact is highly unlikely in southern New England late next week, other than the risk for high surf and dangerous rip currents,” the National Weather Service in Boston reported Saturday evening.
The potential U.S. landfall is still several days away, and Florence’s ultimate track and intensity are not yet set in stone, with still a small chance that it meanders just off the East Coast and then curls out to sea.
On Friday, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency and urged residents to use the weekend to prepare for the possibility of a natural disaster.
“We are entering the peak of hurricane season and we know well the unpredictability and power of these storms,” he said.
As of Saturday, Florence bore no resemblance to the beastly storm that it will eventually become. Late Saturday night, Florence’s maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 70 mph, the hurricane center said. The storm was centered about 790 miles southeast of Bermuda and moving west at 6 mph.
Over the previous 36 hours, Florence had weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm as the system encountered hostile conditions in the central Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, the environment that Florence is about to move into is extremely favorable for rapid strengthening, thanks to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and low wind shear (the change in wind direction or speed with height). As a result, the National Hurricane Center expects Florence to regain hurricane status within the next 24 hours and intensify to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by Monday or Tuesday.
As Florence enters a region favorable to rapid intensification, the storm will continue to track almost due west, likely passing just south of Bermuda by early next week. Historically speaking, the path that Florence is likely to carve out is a highly unusual one. As tropical weather expert Brian McNoldy pointed out Friday, since 1851, 79 tropical systems tracked close to Florence’s current location, and not one of those storms made a U.S. landfall, with the vast majority remaining well offshore.
But models indicate a historically strong ridge of high pressure will develop in the western Atlantic just as Florence closes in on the U.S. If it verifies, this incredibly strong high pressure system would likely prevent Florence from recurving to the north and out to sea. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and position of the high pressure, though, and thus in the ultimate track and intensity of the storm.
Most model simulations now show Florence making landfall along the East Coast as a major hurricane between Wednesday and Friday of the coming week. This kind of model agreement is plenty reason enough to start sounding the alarm for the millions of people along the East Coast who may be impacted by the storm.
But the exact track, intensity, and landfall location of the storm is impossible to know this far out, and there’s even still an outside chance the storm could meander just offshore and then curl back out to sea.
Even if Florence remains just offshore, dangerous surf, beach erosion and flooding would be likely along portions of the coast, along with wind and rain. Inland effects would be less severe in this scenario, al- though it among the least likely.
Based on current information, there is a 10 percent chance that the hurricane will make landfall in the Northeast.
The worst impacts will occur closest to its landfall location, with storm surge, wind damage and torrential rain representing the biggest hazards. Residual impacts from Florence could be felt up and down the East Coast and over inland areas as well over several days. In particular, after a very wet summer much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions would face a significant flood threat from Florence even after the storm moves ashore.