A reset on transportation?
Predicting the form and character of Connecticut’s transportation system and services after the current public health emergency passes is as uncertain and speculative as the pandemic itself.
Almost certainly, however, the key features of the state’s transportation system, and its priorities of investment, will reflect the form and shape of urban development that emerges from the public health emergency.
The key changes we must make now are changes that have been needed for years. But now, the needs are so much more pressing.
The pandemic has exposed and, in some cases, accelerated a range of economic and social trends that for the most part were with us before coronavirus.
Among them: The pandemic has demonstrated the wide economic inequalities and the social isolation of many lowerincome communities within the nation’s major metropolitan areas, including, the tri-state region.
The pandemic has also shown that much office work can be accomplished remotely. Telecommuting had been growing before the pandemic, and many firms have learned through this experience that their need for downtown office space can be sharply reduced.
Escalating costs and the limited supply of housing in mega-metro regions, like New York, have already led to some outmigration of residents and businesses from densely populated urban cores to less costly areas. Brick-and-mortar retail has been declining, and on-line shopping growing, even more quickly than it has been for the last several years.
The post-pandemic world will also likely see changes in freight movements as home deliveries increase and supply chains and logistical requirements are altered.
The current health crisis has accelerated these circumstances and perhaps made more enduring the drift of offices, homes, retail and supporting services away from the density of central cities to less urbanized portions of major metropolitan regions. Moreover, the decline of these activities in the cores of the metropolitan regions is likely related to fears that health risks are greatly enhanced by crowding on all forms of public transit.
If these conditions persist, the result almost certainly would be greater automobile dependence, as normal vehicular traffic returns to pre-pandemic levels.
Commuter rail, subways and buses enable the densities of urban centers like Manhattan to exist, and the New Haven rail line is at the core of Connecticut’s connection to the central business district of New York, the engine of the region’s economic growth. However, at the height of the coronavirus crisis in the New York region, ridership on Metro North had declined by approximately 95 percent, with comparable ridership losses on the subways.
While some of these ridership losses have reversed, as the worst of what may only the first wave of the pandemic eases in the Northeast, fears of coronavirus transmission on crowded trains persist and could be factors in the further decentralization of economic activities and greater automobile use.
The availability of a vaccine and of effective treatments against COVID-19 might allow urban growth patterns and traditional transportation uses to be restored in the New York metropolitan region and in Connecticut, but we cannot count on the future being like the past. Unlike the circumstances after 9/11, the uncertainties of this health emergency and the resulting economic hardships could continue for some time.
For the last several years, Connecticut’s proximity to New York appeared to be a key to the state’s prosperity and fiscal stability, and the reliability of the transportation between Connecticut and New York (and with other major Northeastern metropolitan regions) emerged as the most important transportation investments for the state. But other conditions have gained strength during this crisis. Persistent inequality has been exposed, and land use patterns have, perhaps, been modified.
The post-pandemic world presents opportunities to implement policies and programs, beneficial in their own right, but more essential now.
First, connectivity to New York City should be strengthened. While the role of New York City as the economic center of the tri-state region may be diminished, its importance will continue, and connectivity to it will remain essential for Connecticut’s economy. New York’s concentration of knowledge-based and financial service jobs, the technological innovations that arise from the diversity of its businesses and residents and the attraction of its health, educational and cultural institutions will continue to be the foundations of regional prosperity.
Second, transportation must play a vital role in addressing economic inequality and social isolation. For low-income workers, commuter rail and bus services often represent the only means of accessing jobs, health, recreational and educational services. Despite almost certain ridership and revenue reductions, more public money will have to go into transit services to insure that they are maintained and that pandemic-related public health measures are implemented. Increased subsidies will be required to cover operating losses.
Third, Connecticut’s bus transit services must become more efficient, flexible and customer-responsive. The consolidation of Connecticut’s multitude of fragmented transit agencies into a single, seamless statewide bus provider and coordination of bus services with private providers of shared rider services are essential.
Fourth, projected increases in vehicle traffic in a more decentralized urban environment will require mitigating traffic congestion and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as investing in restoring and maintaining Connecticut’s highways and roads. Managing congestion will require pricing and market mechanisms (such as mileagebased road fees and dynamic parking charges), cooperation with private employers to stagger work days and hour, and provision of real-time traveler information to manage demand. Reducing emissions may require not only properly pricing the highway and road system but also the introduction of carbon taxes and other incentives to electrify the vehicle fleet.
The transportation demands that may emerge in a post-pandemic world are unclear but are likely to be different in many ways from what we have known. However, there will be opportunities to insure that long-overlooked needs are addressed, even as we adjust to new realities.