Is Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce still underpaid after big raise?
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Travis Kelce and George Kittle are now the two best-compensated tight ends in football, which seems about right since they’re the two most productive tight ends in football.
In basically 24 hours’ time, they overhauled the financial market at their position — while Kittle will earn a tad more than Kelce per season, they’re each set to make $4 million-plus more annually than any tight end was earning.
And yet …
Does their compensation fully recognize their value? Are they still bargains to the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively, even while earning 35% more than any other players at their position?
The debate resides in the value of a tight end. But at least part of an individual player’s value rests in how much better he is than his peers. Who else can do what he does? And how instrumental is that to a team’s success?
If you take away Kelce from the Chiefs or Kittle from the 49ers, how differently do those offenses operate?
“I think any team that has a great tight end, especially an athletic one, an elite one, it always provides the offense with an advantage,” Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu said. “You think about Travis Kelce and the George Kittles of the world, every time they line up, you can possibly have a mismatch.
“I think the teams that have those guys, they appreciate those guys. The teams that don’t have them, they’re trying to find other ways to make up for it. It’s not often you get guys like Kittle, guys like Kelce that can really change the game from the tight end position.
“It’s going to take guys like George Kittle and Travis Kelce to continue to set the standard so that position is respected and that position is considered a valuable position on the offensive side of the football.”
The measurement between contrasting positions is certainly difficult, but it’s an exercise NFL general managers must make daily as they massage their cap numbers.
In baseball, metrics like WAR (wins above replacement) help settle arguments. But half of baseball players hit and play the field, and the other half pitch.
The variance is greater from position to position within football. It’s beyond offense and defense. How can we compare a right guard to a cornerback?
The answers are educated assessments. Subject to debate. How badly do we need this guy? Yes, the Chiefs are a completely different team without Patrick Mahomes. But they won a Super Bowl with five different leading rushers in 2019. The case that a running back — no matter who — is more valuable to their offense than Kelce would seem to be a tough one to make.
Subtract Kelce from Andy Reid’s offense, and a lot would change. He requires extra attention … or he wins one-on-one. Two-thirds of his catches resulted in first downs last year.
Yet the market suggests the elite NFL tight ends are less important than the elite running backs. Less valuable than the elite quarterbacks (obviously), left tackles, right tackles, wide receivers, interior defensive linemen, edge rushers, linebackers and cornerbacks, too. In fact, at least one NFL player at every offensive position other than fullback and center is paid more than Kelce annually.
The metrics don’t necessarily follow the same formula. In a newly developed WAR-like statistic, Pro Football Focus labeled tight ends fourth in highest
annual average, behind only quarterbacks, receivers and defensive backs.
Pro Football Reference has attempted to formulate — and continues to tweak — an approximate value (AV) for each player each season. Kelce has been assigned an AV of 13, 15, 10 and 10 in his last four seasons. That’s on par with Chiefs receiver and teammate Tyreek Hill. It’s significantly higher than Cleveland receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
In terms of doling out expensive contracts, tight ends have been proven to offer more safety than risk. They are some of the most consistent producers in the NFL. They’re able to replicate success. Kelce has four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Kittle, in just three years, has back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns. Philadelphia tight end Zach Ertz has eclipsed 800 yards five straight years.
When you give Kelce $14.3 million, in other words, the risk factor is essentially limited to injury only. When healthy, he’s going to produce. And he’s going to produce more from his position than some elite players will at theirs.
“We’ve watched him — everybody has — grow before their eyes, fans included,” Reid said. “He still comes to work every day wanting to get better. You love that part of him. He brings energy every day.”