After quiet summer, cases climbing
Experts, officials cite a complex web of factors
As Connecticut’s COVID-19 metrics have moved in the wrong direction in recent weeks, state and local health officials, as well as medical experts, have struggled to pinpoint a single cause for the uptick.
Does the trend owe to college kids partying on campus? Schools across the state reopening? Have residents just become tired of social distancing?
The picture, according to officials and experts, is complex, with a confluence of disparate factors all contributing to drive up the state’s numbers. The increases have been fueled, in part, by small outbreaks in different communities — each of which has experienced its own array of circumstances.
“Small social gatherings continue to be a common thread,” Dr. Deidre Gifford, acting commissioner of public health, said earlier this month. “There have [also] been a couple outbreaks related to places of employment, to churches and of course the universities.”
Added Karl Minges, chair of health administration and policy at the University of New Haven: “Some of it may be attributable to schools; some of it may be attributable to colleges reopening; some of it may be attributable to people feeling more comfortable going out and being less cautious.”
After months of low metrics, Connecticut’s rate of COVID-19
cases has increased, along with its rate of positive tests and its number of hospitalized patients. Whereas the state saw only about 0.8% of coronavirus tests come back positive for much of July and August, that figure has increased to about 1.2% more recently.
As of late Wednesday, Connecticut had recorded 56,315 positive cases of COVID-19 and 4,497 coronavirus-linked deaths during the pandemic.
From school reopenings to travel to “pandemic fatigue,” here are some reasons behind the recent increase:
College campuses
Outbreaks on college campuses have been perhaps the most common explanation for the state’s uptick, in part because the numbers are so clearly evident.
UConn has recorded more than 300 cases since students returned in August. Central Connecticut State has seen about 75. The University of Hartford found 15 last week alone. Sacred Heart has experienced more than 100 cases in the past seven days, driving the university president to threaten sending students home and shifting to full remote status.
“There’s been a number of cases at UConn; there’s been some at Central,” the state’s chief operating officer, Josh Geballe, said last week, discussing the state’s recent increase in cases. “Those seem contained at this point — I think the administrations there have taken all the right actions — but those do drive case numbers.”
College campuses don’t account for the full increase in cases; Danbury, for example, had plenty of COVID19 even before Western Connecticut State opened — but they help explain the uptick in places like Mansfield, which recorded so many cases among UConn students that Tolland County at one point had the state’s highest infection rate.
In some areas, officials worry that cases on college campuses could spill over into the surrounding communities. New Britain, for example, saw an increase in its COVID-19 cases as CCSU’s numbers spiked, leading the local health director to say “there is a concern” about students infecting others.
K-12 schools
Cases in public schools have mounted in recent weeks, prompting more than two dozen districts to temporarily close some or all schools. Lamont said Monday he was aware of about 75 cases at K-12 schools, a relatively small number that could still have a notable effect if infected students spread COVID-19 in their homes or communities.
“We expected some of those cases to happen, and unfortunately we’re seeing some of that in the community at this time,” said Dr. Ajay Kumar, chief clinical officer at Hartford HealthCare.
Officials and health experts say the reopening of public schools could also be playing another, less direct role as well.
“The schools being open is overall putting more people in contact with more people who are out and about,” said Patrice Sulik, health director for the North Central District, which covers Enfield, Windham and surrounding towns. “I’m just theorizing that because school is back in session there may be parents who previously weren’t at work who are now out and about at work.”
Liany Arroyo, director of Hartford’s health department, offered a similar theory, referring to K-12 education as well as colleges and universities.
“As we’ve reopened and more people are going back to work, more people have exposures, and that could certainly be leading to this uptick that we’re seeing,” Arroyo said.
Still, Minges and others cautioned against over-stating the role of schools, warning that the full effect of K-12 reopening wouldn’t be evident for at least a few more weeks.
“I think it’s a confluence of factors, but the overall rate hasn’t gone up that markedly to immediately say there’s a correlation with schools, especially given there are tens of thousands of kids in schools a c r o s s C o n n e c t i c u t ,” Minges said.
Small gatherings
Officials stress that following the state’s guidelines on indoor and outdoor gatherings isn’t enough to ensure safety, that person-to-person spread can occur just as easily at small events. In some cases, they say, even small, outdoor gatherings have led to coronavirus clusters.
That ’s largely what happened in Danbury, where youth and adult sports leagues and small gatherings contributed to a sustained local outbreak, the largest Connecticut has seen since the spring.
“We’re seeing instances where small barbecues, say 10-15 people, are becoming spreaders,” Mayor Mark Boughton said recently. “Even though they are mostly outdoors, if people haven’t been tested, they are still spreading it.”
It’s been a long time that we’ve been in the midst of this pandemic and people are tired. Liany Arroyo, Hartford health director
In Hartford, Arroyo has observed gatherings both large and small, some of which have contributed to the city’s relatively high coronavirus numbers.
“A large gathering, obviously, has many more opportunities to be exposed to individuals who could be COVID-positive,” Arroyo said. “But even a small family gathering can increase your risk if you’re not all living in the same household.”
Travel
Boughton also cited international travel as a source of COVID-19 spread in Danbury, particularly among the city’s South American population.
“You have an uncle who goes to Brazil for the summer and then comes back and brings it with him and next thing you know it’s spread to his family,” Boughton said.
Russell Melmed, director of the Chatham Health District, said local contact tracers have seen infected residents return on domestic flights as well, particularly as the summer wound down.
“All summer long, that’s what we were seeing: returning travelers from other parts of the country — typically it was the southern part of the United States — and they brought back infections,” Melmed said. “We also have seen transmission in those families. So one person comes back and gets sick and the household will get sick as a result.”
As of Tuesday, Connecticut’s domestic travel advisory included 33 states as close as Rhode Island and as far as Alaska, along with Puerto Rico and Guam.
Workplaces, places of worship
Over the past months, examples have accumulated of COVID-19 clusters in a given workplace or house of worship — everyday settings where people gather regularly.
In August more than 30 migrant workers at an East Windsor tobacco farm tested positive within the congregate setting where they live together. Later, an outbreak at a mattress factory contributed to a spike in East Hartford’s cases.
“We are still seeing some folks test positive in the higher-risk forms of employment,” Melmed said.
Meanwhile, officials in Danbury, New Britain and East Hartford have all mentioned places of worship as sites of transmission. Statewide, many churches, synagogues, mosques and more have held remote services, while others have returned to in-person worship.
State guidelines allow for religious, spiritual and other worship gatherings of up to 25% the capacity of an indoor space or 100 people, whichever is smaller, and up to 150 people outdoors.
‘Pandemic fatigue’
Increasingly, officials voice concern that residents no longer take social distancing and mask-wearing as seriously as they previously did.
“We have seen some increase in activity because of fatigue among the society of not obeying social distancing and other policies,” Kumar said, noting the recent Labor Day weekend.
Kumar said he worried this effect was particularly strong among younger residents.
“If younger generations do not follow the social distancing and mask policies, it’s likely they will get through the virus, but they will expose other community members who are most vulnerable and we will see high mortality.”
Arroyo said she understands the impulse to ease up on social distancing but warned residents to stay vigilant.
“It’s been a long time that we’ve been in the midst of this pandemic and people are tired,” she said. “We’re not used to wearing masks in our culture. That’s not something that we do. We’re not used to being apart from our families in this way. So it seems like folks are starting to get a little relaxed.”