Breaking it down: Which matchups will be key to winning series.
It’s a tasty matchup, two talented teams clashing in the AL Division Series against a backdrop of ill will. Welcome back to Yankees-Rays, a rivalry with real heat that now gets a spicy postseason chapter. Yum. During the season, versatile Tampa Bay dominated, going 8-2, outscoring the Yanks by 13 and even out-homering the more famous Bronx Bombers. Does that make the Yankees (gulp) underdogs? Against the “big, bad No. 1 seed of the AL,” as Aaron Boone described the Rays, maybe it does. Here’s a look:
Catcher
GARY SANCHEZ AND KYLE HIGASHIOKA VS. MIKE ZUNINO Analysis: Sanchez and Zunino had similar seasons on offense (each batted an awful .1 47 ) and both homered in the wild card round. If Sanchez gets hot, he’s scary, but the Yanks would be happy if his defense didn’t become a series talking point. Higashioka will catch Gerrit Cole in Game 1 , so his game management is vital. Higashioka had a three-homer game during the season, so he can run into one.
Edge: Yankees
First base
LUKE VOIT VS. JI-MAN CHOI AND MIKE BROSSEAU
Analysis: Voit led MLB with 2 2 homers and has hit the fifth-most in baseball since his Yankee debut in 2 0 1 8 . He’s played through a foot issue, which makes him look awkward running. But he trots so much, who cares? Choi is back from injury and will doubtless start Game 1 against Cole, since he is 8 -for-1 2
(.6 6 7 ) with three homers against the Yankee ace. Brosseau (.9 3 6 OPS in 3 6 games) is another option, as is Nate Lowe (.74 9 OPS).
Edge: Yankees
Second base
DJ LEMAHIEU VS. BRANDON LOWE
Analysis: LeMahieu (.3 6 4 ) won his second batting title and is the Yanks’ best player. Lowe (.9 1 6 OPS, 1 4 homers) is “extremely well-rounded with immense power,” says an opposing scout.“He does have some strikeout issues, but he makes up for it with his ability to walk and hit for power. He’s going to be tough to deal with.”
Edge: Yankees
Shortstop
GLEYBER TORRES VS. WILLY ADAMES
Analysis: Torres is a star who is struggling (.243 average, .724 OPS). He made nine errors as he transitioned from second to shortstop and defensive metrics were unkind to his glove. But one opposing executive believes Torres’ troubles were because of the stop-start of baseball’s schedule in the pandemic. Torres was 5-for-7 in the wild card series. Adames is one of the reasons a scout says the Rays are“very good on defense, especially up the middle.”He had an .813 OPS with eight homers and can flash a spectacular glove.
Edge: Rays
Third base
GIO URSHELA VS. JOEY WENDLE OR YANDY DIAZ
Analysis: Hitters such as Urshela give the Yankees more of a multi-look offensive profile than the Rays, the scout says, adding“Not just sluggers.”Still, Urshela can hit the long ball, as evidenced by his key grand slam in the wild card series. He’s also a remarkable defender, vital for a club that led MLB in errors. Diaz (.428 OBP) missed a month with a hamstring injury, but returned for the playoffs. Joey Wendle, another choice, had a .937 OPS over his final 15 games. Edge: Yankees
Left field
BRETT GARDNER AND CLINT FRAZIER VS. RANDY AROZARENA
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Analysis: Frazier was a huge asset (.9 0 5 OPS) during the season, but finished in a skid (1 -for-2 0 with 1 1 strikeouts) and whiffed in his only wild card at-bat. Gardner, meanwhile, gives the Yanks a rare lefty swinger and better defense and hit .3 7 5 with a homer and double against the Indians. Arozarena (.6 4 1 slugging) emerged in the wake of Austin Meadows’ injury and went 4 -for-8 with two doubles and a triple in the wild card series.
Edge: Even
Center field
AARON HICKS VS. KEVIN KIERMAIER
Analysis: Hicks’ offensive talent is drawing walks, which gave him a .3 7 9 on-base percentage in a season that was mostly sub-par. Kiermaier is a spectacular defensive player. He won’t reach base like Hicks — Kiermaier had a .3 2 1 OBP — but he’s a glove star and one eye-popping play could tilt the series. Edge: Rays
Right field
AARON JUDGE VS. MANUEL MARGOT AND HUNTER RENFROE Analysis: Judge romped early, got hurt and then sputtered. But his homer off Shane Bieber might have been the biggest hit of the first round. He struggles against Blake Snell (1 -for-1 6 , 1 0 Ks) and Charlie Morton (1 -for-1 3 , nine Ks), but if he gets hot, yikes. Neither Margot (.6 7 9 OPS) nor Renfroe (.6 4 5 OPS) will light up a stat sheet, but both homered in the wild card round, including a grand slam by Renfroe.
Edge: Yankees
Designated hitter
GIANCARLO STANTON VS. YOSHI TSUTSUGO
Analysis: Stanton homered in both games against Cleveland and looms as a potential Series-wrecker since he has a career .993 OPS against Tampa pitching and he’s homered against each of the Rays’ top three starters. Tsutsugo’s slash line (.197/.314/.395) is no highlight, but the scout wonders if he had some bad luck during the season and his .230 BABIP indicates that.
Edge: Yankees
Starting rotation
Analysis: “Once you get past Cole, I’d give Tampa the advantage in starting pitching,”says our scout.“Their top two [Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow] have immense power, swingand-miss stuff. Both have occasionally been susceptible to the long ball, though, which could be the difference in the series.”Snell (1.8 HR/9) and Glasnow (1.73 HR/9) were both well above the MLB longball average (1.3 HR/9). Glasnow struck out 38.2% of the hitters he faced and opponents batted just .115 against his lethal curveball. Charlie Morton is Tampa’s third starter and, as an Astro, won Game 7 of a World Series. Lefties Josh Fleming and Ryan Yarborough could start, too. The Yankees actually had a worse OPS against lefties (.704) than righties this year (.811). Cole (2.60 postseason ERA) is the best pitcher remaining in October and delivered in his first Yankee playoff start. J.A. Happ figures to go Game 3 after a strong finish (2.34 ERA, .581 opponent OPS) over his last seven starts.
Edge: Rays
Bullpen
Analysis: The Rays bullpen is more than just the infamous Kevin Cash threat. As a second competing executive notes, the Rays can bring “a lot of different looks.” Nick Anderson (0.5 5 ERA, 4 4 .8 K%), Diego Castillo (1 .6 6 ERA) and lefty Aaron Loup (held righties to a .1 9 2 average) are pen names to know. Even with its big rep and boldface names, the Yanks’ relief corps was mid-pack all season, and Boone did not seem to trust anyone beyond Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton in the wild card series. Edge: Rays
Pick
YANKEES IN 5