Cases on the rise

Reasons vary for the uptick in coronavirus cases in the state.

After a devastating COVID-19 outbreak last spring followed by months of low infection levels, Connecticut has recently seen an uptick in coronavirus cases, positivity rate and hospitalizations.

Where is the spread occurring? What’s causing it? Who is getting infected?

Here’s what to know.

How bad is the uptick?

Connecticut’s numbers are nowhere near as high as they were during stretches in April and May, when thousands were hospitalized and dozens died every day.

Still, the recent increase is stark. Whereas Connecticut had only 42 hospitalized

COVID-19 patients at one point in mid-August, it now has more than 100. And whereas the state’s positivity rate had dipped as low as 0.7% over the summer, it has jumped to 1.3% over the past week, including three straight days at 1.8% or higher.

Yes, Connecticut’s numbers remain lower than those of most other states. But the upward trendline has begun to stir concern among officials and public health experts.

“We’re not accelerating rapidly like we did as a state in March of April, so that’s reassuring,” Karl Minges, chair of health administration and policy at the University of New Haven, said recently.

“What does concern me is we’re going in the positive direction. You don’t want to go in the positive direction with this virus. It’s more the directionality that matters, in some ways, than the number.”

What has caused the increase?

There doesn’t seem to be a single, overriding explanation for the recent increase.

In some communities, officials have blamed colleges reopening. In other places, they’ve pointed to travel, small and large gatherings, workplaces or places of worship.

Though state officials have been reluctant to blame the reopening of K-12 schools, cases have mounted among school-age children, and some local officials say the virus has spread among young people and their families.

Officials and experts have also pointed to “pandemic fatigue,” the idea that some indi

viduals have over time become less diligent about social distancing and mask-wearing.

“Everyone is tired of wearing masks, they’re tired of not celebrating weddings and funerals and birthdays,” said Dr. Tom Balcezak, chief medical officer at Yale New Haven Hospital. “And I think where we’re seeing these mini-outbreaks, many times they’re related to some of that fatigue and some of that laxity in what we know works: masking, social distancing, etc.”

Which areas are being hit hardest?

The recent uptick hasn’t been specific to any one city or any one part of the state. In fact, towns and cities across Connecticut — from Danbury to Hartford to New London — have seen high numbers in recent weeks..

According to state numbers released Thursday, these were the towns or cities with the most cases detected from Sept. 13-26:

Danbury - 155

Hartford - 148

Norwich - 133

Waterbury - 112

New Britain - 111

Bridgeport - 108

Stamford - 80

Windham - 66

Fairfield - 63

West Hartford - 60

The uptick has been particularly noticeable in the eastern half of Connecticut, which experienced low levels of infection for much of the pandemic. On Thursday, the Department of Public Health issued a special COVID-19 alert for the city of Norwich, following increased numbers there.

Who is testing positive?

Younger people continue to drive the increase. About 22% of residents whose infections were detected from Sept. 13-26 were in their 20s, according to state data released Thursday, while about 16% were in their 30s and 15% were in their teens.

Overall, about 43% were under age 30 and 59% were under age 40.

Despite the high incidence of COVID-19 among younger residents, older individuals remain far more likely to die of the disease. About 60% of Connecticut’s deaths during the pandemic have been residents age 80 or older, and less than 1% have been residents under age 40.

Black and Latino residents remain far more likely to contract and to die from COVID-19 than white residents.

What’s happening in neighboring states?

Connecticut isn’t alone in facing higher numbers. After months of limited spread, many parts of the Northeast have seen slight increases.

Massachusetts, for example, has watched its average rise from about 300 cases a day in early September to more than 550 now. New Jersey has jumped from about 250 cases a day in late August to more than 600 over the past seven days. Rhode Island’s uptick has been significant enough to land the state on Connecticut’s travel advisory two weeks in a row.

New York City has seen an increase as well, some zip codes rising above a 3% positivity rate.

To be clear, no Northeastern state has added cases as quickly as those in the South and Midwest. But the region is no longer quite as safe as it once was.

What does this mean for schools?

Individual school districts have struggled in recent weeks with when to close buildings and when to shift to hybrid or remote models of schooling.

Though Gov. Ned Lamont has urged districts to keep schools open whenever possible, local officials have often taken a caution approach, employing hybrid models and sending all students home after any positive tests. As of Friday, more than 40 school districts have had one or more schools shut down since children returned to class.

This week, the health director for New London and surrounding towns recommended districts continue with the hybrid moving forward, instead of shifting to full in-person instruction.

As outbreaks spread to more areas of the state, more schools are likely to close and more districts are likely to shift away from in-person classes.

What about dining and other businesses?

As of now, the third phase of Connecticut’s reopening process is scheduled to begin Oct. 8, when restaurants will be allowed to expand indoor capacity, indoor performing arts venues will be allowed to open and residents will be allowed to gather outdoors in groups of up to 150 people.

Lamont has said he would delay that date if Connecticut’s positivity rate reached 3% to 5% or if the state experienced more uncontained outbreaks such as the one in Norwich.

“If I saw more Norwiches happening with that hockey stick increase, I would definitely look at it,” Lamont said Thursday.

The governor has said he would roll back previous reopening decisions only if the state’s positivity rate reached about 5%.

What else can be done to slow the spread?

While local and state officials grapple with whether to close schools and slow reopening, the prescription for individuals is simple.

“The action we all need to take is a redoubling of our efforts around social distancing and masking,” Balcezak said. “Those are the most effective prevention measures.”

Experts fear that as the weather cools, events and gatherings will move indoors, resulting in greater spread. Whether residents wear masks and observe social distancing guidelines could determine how bad Connecticut’s uptick ultimately becomes.