NFL PREDICTIONS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP No. 2 Bills at No. 1 Chiefs

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP No. 5 Buccaneers at No. 1 Packers

3 p.m., Fox

Line: Packers by 3 ½

Buccaneers keys: They have to take away the Packers’ running game. If Aaron Rodgers is allowed to hand it off more than 50% of the time, that will make it too easy for him . ... Avoid the defensive holding penalties that hurt them against the Saints . ... Establish a running game that lets Tom Brady stay on schedule.

Packers keys: Get the running game going to set up the play-action and keep Rodgers in rhythm . ... Try to rev up Aaron Jones, who was held to 15 yards on 10 carries the first time . ... Neutralize the Bucs pass rush by putting Rodgers in those secondand-sixes and third-and-fours.

The pick: From the Colts to the Cardinals to the Bucs, Bruce Arians has had a lot of success against the Packers in recent years. The Packers are playing with incredible efficiency on offense, with that hinging on establishing the run. That’s harder to do with Vita Vea returning for the Bucs. Cold weather doesn’t scare Brady.

Buccaneers 28, Packers 24 6:30 p.m., CBS Line: Chiefs by 3.

Bills keys: Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is perfectly comfortable letting Josh Allen throw on just about every down, and foul weather doesn’t scare them . ... Get slot receiver Cole Beasley more involved . ... This willbeagameof“Ourguy’smore durable than your guy,” especially with Patrick Mahomes coming off a concussion . ... Defensively, take advantage of the fact the Chiefs aren’t going to want Mahomes to run. Keep everything in front of you, and don’t let Tyreek Hill beat you.

Chiefs keys: If the Chiefs play their game, generating offense won’t be a problem. Falling behind doesn’t rattle them, either, judging by the way Mahomes led those comebacks in the 2019 postseason . ... The key will be slowing Allen, who’s dangerous with his arm and legs. Try to keep the Bills quarterback in the pocket, make him throw on schedule, and don’t let him escape to his right.

The pick: There could be a combined 100 passing attempts in this game. The Chiefs have a ton of offensive weapons and can score in bunches, but the injuries to Mahomes are a real concern. Not just the concussion but the turf toe. Allen is playing like a young John Elway, and having Stefon Diggs and John Brown allows the Bills to stretch the field vertically.

Bills 33, Chiefs 31