Restaurants facing new hurdle
As seasons change in the pandemic, will people take their seats indoors?
U.S. restaurants are moving warily into fall, hoping their slow recovery persists despite the new challenge of chilly weather and a pandemic that’s expected to claim even more lives.
New York opened indoor dining on Wednesday, restricting capacity to 25%. San Francisco may do the same soon. Chicago raised its indoor capacity from 25% to 40% on Thursday, but says restaurants still can’t seat more than 50 people in one room.
It’s a dose of reality for an industry that was able to stem at least some of its losses by pivoting to outdoor dining this summer, setting up tables and chairs on sidewalks and parking lots and offering some semblance of normalcy.
But as temperatures start to slide across the country, restaurants will have to coax patrons to come back inside, and it’s anyone’s guess how many actually will. That could spell trouble for an industry that has already lost nearly 100,000 U.S. restaurants — or 1 in 6 — since the start of the pandemic, according to the National Restaurant Association. The future remains uncertain for thousands more.
“We’re all a little apprehensive, but that was the case when we started outdoor dining, too,” said Samantha DiStefano, owner of Mama Fox, a restaurant and bar in the Brooklyn borough of New York.
Mama Fox can only seat 18 people inside at 25% capacity, so DiStefano will still rely heavily on her 14 outdoor tables. She thinks many New York restaurants won’t open indoor dining until the limit reaches 50% because they can’t cover their costs at 25%.
In the meantime, Mama Fox and others are trying to figure out how to extend the outdoor dining season using space heaters, tents, temporary igloos and even blankets. Heat lamps are already in short supply.
Restaurants are also promoting delivery and carryout. Nearly 70% of 3,500 restaurants surveyed in September by the National Restaurant Association said they added curbside takeout during the pandemic; 54% added delivery.
Philip Moseley, co-owner of Blue Oak BBQ in New Orleans, said carryout demand has risen from 10% of sales before the pandemic to 50% now.
Blue Oak BBQ’s dining room is open at half capacity, or about 20 people. But a tent in the parking lot seats 80. That’s enough traffic that the restaurant was able to hire back all 50 employees.
“You do anything you have to do to make the food work, to make the experience work, to get butts in seats,” Moseley said.
Although fall in New Orleans is ideal for outdoor dining, tourists are scarce and the usual round of festivals won’t happen this year.
“Every day has a new set of struggles,” co-owner Ronnie Evans said.
Seventy percent of U.S. restaurants are independent, but chains are hurting too. NPC International, the largest franchisee of both Pizza Hut and Wendy’s, filed for bankruptcy protection in July.
Monthly U.S. restaurant sales hit their lowest point in April, when they plunged to $30 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That was less than half the amount restaurants made a year earlier. Sales steadily improved as lockdowns ended, carryout demand picked up and states allowed to-go alcohol. U.S. restaurant sales hit $55 billion in August, but that’s still $10 billion less than last year.
Some waiters and kitchen staff have gone back to work. Restaurant employment rose by 3.6 million people over the four months ending in August, according to government data. Still, there were 2.5 million fewer U.S. restaurant workers in August compared to February. September’s unemployment numbers are due out Friday.