2020 is different; this year, the vice presidential debate matters
Historically, vice-presidential debates have been the kids’ table of American politics.
Since 2000, an average of just 46.06 million people have watched vice-presidential debates, compared to an average of 57.87 million watching presidential debates, according to the Pew Research Center. That is over ten million fewer people, on average. To put it simply: Americans do not care about vice-presidential debates the way they do about those for president. However, 2020 might be different.
In 2016, there was an election between two high-profile and polarizing candidates who had picked relatively blasé unknowns as their running mates. 2020 is a different scenario entirely, for two main reasons: first, last week’s presidential debate was an unmitigated disaster for both nominees; second, there are serious health concerns surrounding both nominees for president.
Within about 15 minutes, last week’s debate devolved into a shouting-and-interrupting match that relied more on ad hominem attacks from both sides than on any real policy discussions. A poll from Fox News afterwards found that voters thought the debate to be a statistical tie, or close to it.
To any independent or undecided voter hoping to learn more about the candidates and their visions, this was not the event to watch.
Numbers from 2016 do support the theory that the vice-presidential debate can affect votes: according to CNN, 47% of vice-presidential debate viewers that year said that the candidates’ performances made them more likely to vote for a certain party’s nominee (29% for Trump, 18% for Clinton). Since the presidential debate was so objectively bad, the number of voters like these, looking for guidance from the debates, might have risen dramatically in 2020.
The other reason this year’s vice-presidential debate could matter more is the presidential nominees’ health. According to a recent poll, 59% of Americans think that Joe Biden could be replaced as president by his running mate before the end of his first term. That includes 73% of Republicans, 57% of unaffiliated voters and even 49% of Democrats.
As for President Donald Trump, we all watched as he left the White House Friday to be flown to Walter Reed Medical Center for monitoring after his diagnosis with COVID-19. All signs from both his campaign and medical staff point to a full recovery, but the incident does raise new questions about his health. He is a 74-year old, slightly obese man in a high
stress job. No matter whom you support, this is not a recipe for longevity.
The debate is especially important for Kamala Harris and the Democrats, for two reasons: the immediacy of voters’ concerns about Joe Biden, and Harris’ relative obscurity nationwide. It is Harris’ chance to appear presidential and endear herself to voters. Voters already know Mike Pence, and a near-majority have considered him a quality debater. Furthermore, a recent poll shows that voters actually favor Pence over Harris, while a whole quarter admit to not being certain what their opinion on Harris is (compared to only 14% for Pence). Harris does have experience debating on a national stage, having run for the Democratic nomination; but her inability at that time to create excitement for herself or her message is something the Biden-Harris campaign should seek to fix if she is to either win back some of the people who prefer Pence, or impress that quarter that has no opinion on her.
As opposed to other years, the vice-presidential debate in 2020 might have a tangible impact on the race. It makes sense that a certain percentage of (especially undecided) voters will look to the vice-presidential debate for guidance. The issue of the presidential nominees’ health makes the debate more relevant. It would behoove anyone even remotely interested in the state of the race to tune in.
Brendan Civitello, 21, is a senior politics major at the Catholic University of America. He is from Middletown.
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