New Haven keeping numbers low

Only 140 cases in past 30 days, even as other cities report upticks

As COVID-19 cases increased in most of Connecticut over the past month, New Haven has found conspicuous success in keeping its numbers low.

New Haven, the state’s second largest city by population, recorded only 140 coronavirus cases over the past 30 days, state data shows, as compared to 524 in Hartford, 262 in Bridgeport, 374 in Danbury and 333 in Waterbury. NewHaven has seen a slight uptick in recent days, officials there say, but has still recorded far fewer cases than its counterparts elsewhere in Connecticut.

And so as Hartford closes outdoor athletic fields, warns against small gatherings and mulls a likely shift to a mix of in-person and remote learning, New Haven has moved in the opposite direction, planning to offer limited in-person classes beginning Nov. 9 after starting the year entirely online.

So what has contributed to New Haven’s relative success? Why has one city avoided the type of spike in cases that other cities have recorded? Mayor Justin Elicker credited residents and community leaders, as well as some good fortune.

“It’s a mixture of a lot of hard work by our residents and luck,” Elicker said. “I walk around and see everyone’s wearing masks, but there’s also an element of randomness to this all as well.”

Throughout the pandemic, New Haven has been aggressive in its COVID-19 control measures. Early on, the city was quick to close schools, senior centers and other facilities. Later, officials arranged for widespread testing, targeted toward vulnerable populations. In June, the local health department shut downa nightclub after a gathering there violated social distancing restrictions. And this fall, New Haven was one of only two districts in the state to start the year with entirely remote K-12 instruction.

“We were very clear that we were going to follow the science,” Elicker said. “We were going to make decisions that were not

popular because we had the best interest of the residents in mind, and we have been very on-message about that throughout the entire crisis.”

New Haven’s cautious approach has, at times, drawn criticism from the highest levels of state government. In September, Gov. Ned Lamont chided the city for leaving schools closed even as its infection rate — like that of the rest of the state — remained low.

But as other Connecticut cities have experienced upticks one by one in recent weeks, New Haven has mostly controlled the virus. At times this fall, New Haven has recorded C OVID19 cases at less than one-fifth the rate of Hartford, which is now one of the state’s largest hotspots.

Still, Elicker and others warn against reading too much into New Haven’s success or suggesting the city has discovered some special formula for stopping COVID-19. Containing the disease, they say, still comes down to basic precautions.

“I think [New Haven’s low spread] has to do with regional variation in terms of how people are staying social distanced and masked,” said Dr. Tom Balcezak, chief medical officer at Yale New Haven Hospital. “I can’t chalk it up to anything more than that.”

Marna Borgstrom, CEO of Yale New Haven Health, noted that the city’s colleges and universities have avoided the outbreaks seen at other schools, perhaps in part due to aggressive testing and social distancing. Yale, Southern Connecticut State and Albertus Magnus have combined to record only about 75 COVID-19 cases in total, as compared to nearly 400 at UConn alone.

To some observers, New Haven’s relatively low numbers have validated the city’s hotly debated decision to keep school buildings closed to start the year, even as other cities, including Hartford and Bridgeport, have opened classrooms at least partially.

Maritza Bond, New Haven’s health director, said remote school has likely helped keep the city’s numbers low, along with public education about masking and social distancing.

“I think it’s one contributing factor, for certain,” Bond said. “I don’t want to isolate it to that being a major contributing factor, but definitely it played a role.”

Elicker, who favored reopening schools but was outvoted on the city’s Board of Education, said he “would be very reluctant to say our cases are low because our schools are not physically in session.” The mayor noted that in areas with substantial outbreaks, officials have blamed small gatherings or sometimes universities, not schools.

Karl Minges, chair of health administration and policy at the University of New Haven, also hesitated to credit remote learning for the city’s low COVID-19 numbers.

“I’m not sure I 100% buy that argument,” Minges said. “Of course there’s going to be less transmission if people are not physically in schools, but looking at the towns around New Haven [that have opened schools] ... they’re not seeing the same resurgence as, for example, New London has.

“I think that schools are a precipitating factor, but I don’t think it’s the factor,” Minges said.