Thousands more deaths predicted

Statistical models anticipate 900 in next four weeks alone

Connecticut could experience thousands more coronavirus-linked deaths, according to statistical models that forecast the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in coming months.

An “ensemble” model from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cites on its website, currently pegs Connecticut for about 900 deaths in the next four weeks alone, suggesting the state will cross the 6,000 benchmark by the new year, with more death to come thereafter

Within that ensemble, projections differ. The IHME model from the University of Washington forecasts about 3,000 more deaths

in Connecticut from now through April 1, for a total of 8,163. A forecast from MIT, on the other hand, expects deaths in Connecticut to level off after New Year’s, with about 350 total between now and Jan. 15.

Although projections vary from one model to another and researchers warn that no forecast is infallible, the models agree on one thing: that Connecticut will add significantly to its current total of 5,224 deaths linked to COVID-19.

Coronavirus deaths in Connecticut have increased dramatically in recent weeks and months. After experiencing 76 coronavirus-linked deaths in July and August combined, the state recorded 108 in October and 404 in November and has already added 204 in just the first week of December.

The 204 COVID-19 deaths Connecticut has reported in the past week, are the most in a seven-day period since early June. And because the state’s outbreak has not reached its peak, which experts expect to come between late December and mid-January, that death toll will almost certainly continue to rise rapidly in the coming weeks.

COVID-19 deaths in Connecticut include people who tested positive for the disease around their time of death, as well as those whose death certificate lists COVID-19 as a cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death.

The state’s overall death toll during the pandemic ranks fourth nationwide per capita.