Divisional round
Rams at Packers
Rams keys: The teams that give Aaron Rodgers problems are the ones that can bring enough pressure with four up front. Don’t give him opportunities down the field. ... Jalen Ramsey can blanket Davante Adams, but Aaron Jones cannot have a big day. ... The health of Aaron Donald is paramount. ... Rookie running back Cam Akers is huge in this, and teams can run on the Packers. ... Jared Goff needs to get the ball out of his wounded hand quickly. No sacks. Packers keys: Take advantage of the Rams’ issues at quarterback by getting to Goff. ... Establish a running game with Jones to set up the play-action game. ... Try to win the time-of-possession battle by controlling the ball somewhere in the range of 33-36 minutes. Farmer’s pick: As well as the Rams’ defense is playing, picking against Rodgers at home is seldom a good idea. With their quarterback issues, it’s going to be tough for the Rams to take full advantage of a vulnerable Green Bay defense. Even with Jalen Ramsey on him, Davante Adams will have an impact.
27, Rams 21
Ravens at Bills
Packers
Bills keys: The Bills have to make Lamar Jackson beat them from the pocket. They cannot let him run. Sacking him isn’t the primary objective; making him win from the pocket is. ... Taking away the tight end is paramount, so the quarterback has to throw outside. That’s not easy because of all the misdirection Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman runs. Ravens keys: Remember their history: Baltimore is one of the best road teams in playoff history. ... Keep manufacturing the running game, then build the play-action game off that. ... Maybe hit a couple one-on-one shots down the field when the Bills gang up to keep Jackson from running. ... Get some short fields with a defensive stop or turnover.
Farmer’s pick: Teams can run it on Buffalo, and that plays right into Baltimore’s hands. But Josh Allen has been way too hot lately, and he will give the Ravens defense problems with his legs. The Bills keep the dream alive in this one.
Bills 33, Ravens 27
Browns at Chiefs
Browns keys: Keep up their play-action game to their tight ends, which has been going great so far. They won’t have the same matchup advantages against Kansas City that they had against Pittsburgh. ... Stay ahead of the sticks. Thirdand-long is not a Baker Mayfield down. ... The running game is key. If the Browns can milk the clock, play Cover-2 defense and keep everything in front of them, they can hang around. Chiefs keys: If the Chiefs don’t turn it over, they win. ... Don’t let the Browns draw them into a grind-it-out running game, even though rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a dangerous weapon. ... Get some explosive plays. ... Travis Kelce is a huge weapon, especially in this one. Farmer’s pick: Give Andy Reid a week off, and he’s going to give you problems. His teams are 18-3 after a week off during the regular season, and 5-2 in the playoffs after a bye. Cleveland should be able to run the ball, but the Browns won’t do enough to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands.
Chiefs 34, Browns 24
Buccaneers at Saints
Buccaneers keys: Even though the focus will be on Tom Brady and Drew Brees, this game is all about who can run the ball. Getting Ronald Jones back from his quadriceps injury is paramount. If Jones can’t go, Leonard Fournette has to pick up the slack. ... Brees gets the ball out of his hands so fast, Tampa Bay likely will drop eight defenders frequently rather than try to pressure him.
Saints keys: Again, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are going to be essential here to establish the running game. ... The return of receiver Michael Thomas makes Brees more dangerous. ... Do what no team has ever done: Beat Brady for the third time in the same season. Farmer’s pick: The Saints swept the Buccaneers in the regular season, but winning three times is quite a mountain to climb. Brady is on a torrid five-game stretch. The Buccaneers go on the road and get the job done.
Bucs 31, Saints 27