Despite Springer loss, still options in CF
The fact the the Mets weren’t willing to meet the Blue Jays’ offer for All-Star center fielder George Springer revealed Steve Cohen’s team is operating under a budget.
The competition for Springer was down to the Mets and Blue Jays, as the Daily News reported in December. While the Metshaggled to get his price down in order to have money left over for contract extensions for Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto, Toronto had no problem reportedly giving $150 million over six years and still managing to stay under their competitive balance tax.
When the Mets passed on trying to compete with the Blue Jays for Springer, they were likely thinking ahead to 2022, when Robinson Cano’s $24 million is back on the books and Lindor, Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman become free agents. Throw in the CBA that expires next year and the unknowns only increase.
So where does that leave the Mets’ outfield now?
While manyintheindustry expect the Mets to sign a free agent like Jackie Bradley Jr. or Kike Hernandez, sources believe the Mets are more likely to acquire someone like Albert Almora as a platoon option.
Almora is a 26-year-old outfielder who was the sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft by the Cubs. He spent the past five years in Chicago, amassing a below league average career OPS+ of 84. It’s been a couple of years since Almora was put in a position where hecouldsucceed defensively (heonly played 92 ⅔ innings in center field in 2020 under manager David Ross) with 2018 being his best season in the outfield.
Two years removed from his MLB debut during Chicago’s 2016 championship run, Almora played a career-high 918 ⅓ innings in center and posted a 10 DRS (defensive runs saved) in 2018, tied with Billy Hamilton for third best in MLB among qualified center fielders, according to FanGraphs. His 10 OAA (outs above average) that year was sixth-best in the league, complemented by a 3.4 defensive WAR(wins above replacement).
WhenAlmora is playing regularly, he’s a defense-first center fielder who could drastically improve the Mets’ minus-5 center field DRSandoverall minus-22 DRS in 2020, the latter of whichwasfifthworstinMLB. Hecan be a fourth outfielder with Brandon Nimmo sliding over to left field and Dominic Smith either playing first base or hitting DH.
But it’s hard to imagine Almora getting regular playing time with the numbers he’s put up offensively. His OPS has dipped every year since his debutin2016, culminating in anawful .465 OPSand29OPS+ over 28 games and 30 at-bats in 2020. His strikeout rate even jumped from 17.1% to 26.5% last season. Though last year’s small sample size — and generally weird pandemic-impacted 60-game season — is hardly a good indicator of Almora’s plate performance, he has a career .707 OPS and .271/.309/.398 slashline — numbers that are slightly better than Juan Lagares.
Almora is expected to earn somewhere north of $1.5 million in free agency after the Cubs non-tendered himinDecember. Hewillcertainly be cheaper than Bradley Jr., whoisnow expected to be worth more than the
$9 million that MLB Trade Rumors initially projected the Scott Boras client wouldget from an outfield-deficient team. Since we’ve already discovered the Mets are concerned about their offseason budget, despite Cohen’s billions and positive impact on the team’s payroll, the difference in price tag between Almora and Bradley Jr. could end up being a significant factor.
The Mets have just over $29 million remaining in luxury tax space after their acquisitions of Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. Though Alderson indicated the Mets are willing to go over that line, he also said it’s a “significant consideration” when it comes to their plans this offseason. Perhaps Cohen would rather fall in line with the other 29 owners and stay under the tax in his first offseason, preferring not to rock the boat.
After landing Lindor andCarrasco, improving at catcher with James McCann, acquiring Trevor Mayfora deeper bullpen andreportedly having an interest in reliever Brad Hand to further improve their relief corps, it’s possible the Mets are now looking to spread their wealth with smaller pickups.
Almora’s right-handed bat is a better fit for the Mets than Bradley Jr.’s left-handed production in a lefty-heavy lineup. But compared to the former Red Sox All-Star center fielder, who rank sin the 99 th percentile in O A A and generates a handful of web gems every year, Almora would be just anOKacquisition for the Mets outfield.
He certainly won’t provide the outfield splash fans are still looking for, especially after Springer chose Toronto over Queens.