Selection Monday preview

Breaking down UConn’s NCAA Tournament seeding, all things bracketology

With most conference tournaments wrapped up, it’s officially time to shift attention to the stretch basketball fans have been waiting for all season: the Big Dance.

With Selection Monday and the NCAA Tournament right around the corner, The Courant caught up with ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme about the state of the women’s basketball field, whether UConn will remain the No. 1 overall seed and more.

What is different this year?

The entire NCAA women’s tournament will be played in the San Antonio area. There is no geographic proximity to take into account, as teams are sorted into regionals by the NCAA women’s basketball committee. Creme doubts that will affect the competition. He notes that even in normal years, the S-curve is at the foundation of the committee’s decision-making even if geography is an important component. (In an S-curve, the No. 1 overall team plays the No. 8 team, No. 2 plays No. 7, No. 3 plays No. 6 and No. 4 plays No. 5.)

This season was also the first that the NCAA introduced the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as a replacement for RPI, one of the many metrics used to determine who makes the tournament and where they are seeded. While RPI is purely results-driven, Creme said NET is a step up because it takes into account the “how” of a team’s win or loss by reflecting net efficiency and the location of games.

Even if it’s an upgrade over the RPI, NETstill has some anomalies. Creme expects that it’ll be even more accurate in a normal year of competition when teams play full slates of games.

Through Friday’s games, UConn was No. 2 in NETbehind Stanford. The top five is rounded out by Baylor, South Carolina and Maryland.

What we learned from early reveals

For one, we saw that the committee didn’t rely on the NET as a hard-and-fast rule. For example, Texas A&M was a one-seed (No. 3 overall team) in the most recent reveal despite being outside the top 10 in NET. The committee respected the Aggies’ 21-1 record and slew of wins against Top-25 competition.

“The NET’s not the end all be all. The RPI was never the end all be all,” Creme said. “But it’s a starting point. It’s an organizing tool, and it’s a basis for a lot of this.”

In the first reveal, Cremenoticed strong teams that didn’t play as many games because of COVID19 issues — such as Michigan and USF — took a hit seeding-wise. Programs like Rutgers and Oregon State have also hadextendedpauses but were some of the hottest teams in the country after their returns. It’s unclear just howthecommittee will weigh those COVID peculiarities come Monday.

First-round opponent: No. 10 Maryland

When: Saturday (time is TBD)

Scouting report: Maryland went 16-13 this season and fell to Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament quarterfinals on Friday. The Terrapins are 30th in KenPom. com’s ratings and 35th in the NCAA’s NET rankings.

Maryland has the Big 10’s second-best defense and gave up just 65 points per game this season. Its offense, on the other hand, was dead last, allowing 68 points per game. The Terrapins were middle of the pack in the conference in 3-point field goal percentage (35%). They were the conference’s worst offensive rebounding team but were fourth in defensive rebounds at 33.4 per game.

UConn matches up well from a defense and rebounding perspective. The Huskies pride themselves on those two areas of the game and led the Big East in multiple defense and rebounding categories. But Maryland has had some big wins this year — namely against Illinois that won the Big 10 Tournament on Sunday — so the Terrapins know how to handle themselves in big games.

Key players for Maryland: Eric Ayala (6-5, G, 14.9 points, 4.5 assists per game), Aaron Wiggins (6-6, G, 14.0 points, 2.5 assists, 5.9 rebound) and Donta Scott (10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds).

Key wins for Maryland: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue.

AroundtheEastRegion: If UConn were to beat Maryland in the first round, the Huskies would face the winner of No. 2 Alabama and No. 15 Iona. Alabama is 24-6 and won the SEC Tournament championship game on Sunday. The Crimson Tide average 79.6 points per game and are eighth in KenPom and seventh in NET. Iona is coached by long-time college basketball coach Rick Pitino. ... From a big picture standpoint, UConn did well to avoid Gonzaga, the country’s top-ranked team, and Baylor, the No. 1 seed in the South Region. Michigan is the top seed in UConn’s region and is second in KenPom, and fourth in NET. ... Big East foe Georgetown is also in UConn’s bracket and seeded 12th. The Hoyas will face No. 5 Colorado on Saturday.

Key questions for UConn

How will the Huskies respond after a three-point loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament semifinals? Coach Dan Hurley said that inexperience in a tournament atmosphere may have affected them on Friday. Are two games in the BigEastTournamentenough to prepare the Huskies for March Madness? We shall see on Saturday.

Will R.J. Cole be healthy? Cole missed the last four minutes vs. Creighton after falling andhittinghisheadon

the Madison Square Garden floor. He went into concussion protocol and will have to be symptom free for a period before being allowed to play. Without Cole, UConn’s offense slowed down on Friday. Hurley called him the “head of the horse” on Sunday.

“Hehadamildconcussion, and he’s in protocol,” Hurley said. “Obviously the game on Saturday [instead of Friday] improves his chances.”

Do the Huskies have another seven-seed run in them? UConn was a No. 7 seed in the East Region in 2014 and went on to win the NCAATournament.

Hartford outlook

First-round opponent: No. 1 Baylor.

When: Friday (time is TBD).

Scouting report: Hartford has a tall task ahead of them in Baylor. The Bears, whoare fourthinKenPomandsecond in NET, have beenamongthe country’sbestteamssincethe start of the season. The Bears (22-2) fell to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament but have the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country per KenPom.

Led by a trio of guards who all average double-digits in scoring, the Hawks’ backcourt will have their hands full defensively.

Key players for Baylor: Jared Butler (6-3, G, 17.1 points per game), MaCio Teague (6-4, G, 16.2 points) and Davion Mitchell (6-2, G, 14.1 points).

Key wins for Baylor: Illinois, Texas, Kansas, West Virginia.

AroundtheSouthRegion: If Hartford were to beat Baylor, it would face either North Carolina or Wisconsin in the next round — two of college basketball’s blue blood programs. ... Big East regular-season winner Villanova, a five seed, is also in Hartford’s region.

Key questions for Hartford

Toppling a No. 1 seed in the first round is no easy task. Can Hartford become just the second team to do it?

Lucky for Hartford, it doesn’t have to look too far to find the Cinderella who did it.

America East foe, University of Maryland-Baltimore County, beat No. 1 Virginia as a No. 16 seed in 2018, becoming the first (and only) 16 seed to upset a one seed. It’s certainly not impossible for John Gallagher’s Hartford squad to join their conference teammates in the history books.

Can Hartford slow down Baylor’s offense? The Bears are the Big 12’s top scoring team and the best in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Hawks are the top defensive squad in America East, held opponents to 63.3 points per game this season and led the conference in steals, but they haven’t faced anyone as explosive as Baylor this season. Pressuring the Bears’ ballhandlers and forcing turnovers will be key.

In a college hockey season unlike any other, UConn put together its best year yet.

The Huskies finished fourth in Hockey East, the program’s highest final spot since joining the conference ahead of the 2014-15 season. They were briefly ranked in the USHCO top 25 for the first time. Junior Jonny Evans was named a Hockey East first-team all-star, another program first, and is a finalist for player of the year. Coach Mike Cavanaugh is a finalist for coach of the year.

But in the Hockey East Tournament quarterfinals Sunday, the fifth-seeded Friars (11-8-5) beat the fourth-seeded Huskies (10-11-2) 6-1 at Freitas Ice Forum in Storrs, ending UConn’s season.

Providence looked very much like a program with 40-plus wins in the conference tournament, two conference titles and a national championship. The rising Huskies looked like a team that has never won a game in the conference tournament.

“I think we took great strides as a program [this season],” Cavanaugh said. “Of the 22 games we played, up until tonight, we only had six regulation losses. We took a step where, last year, we had a game to win to get home ice and we lost it. This year we found a way to win that game. Next year the step is to put ourselves in this position again and find a way to win a playoff game.”

Providence scored first, 8:47 into the opening period, on a goal from Parker Ford. The Huskies, who were outshot 19-9 in the first period, looked a little unsettled on offense early and struggled to get shots

Uula Ruikka scored 1:58 into the second period to give Providence a two-goal lead. Nick Poisson scored exactly a minute later to make it 3-0.

The Huskies got one back at at 9:20 in the second on a goal from junior Jachym Kondelik, the conference’s leader in assists. It was his fourth goal of the season. His first three came against Providence in UConn’s final regular-season game, a 5-3 win.

Providence’s Tyce Thompson responded with an early third-period goal to cancel out Kondelik’s tally. Brett Berard and Max Crosier each added a goal for the Friars in the third to make it 6-1.

The Huskies outshot Providence 32-24 in the final two periods but could only get one past Jaxson Stauber, who made 40 saves for the Friars.