Surge possible as weather cools
Pedro Mendes, a computation biologist at Uconn Health, has been projecting the COVID-19 pandemic since nearly the beginning, developing several dozen versions of a model that forecasts hospitalizations in Connecticut.
Rarely, he says, has even the near-term future been less certain.
Mendes said he is currently running six variations on his model, which show an unusually wide range of possible outcomes over the coming weeks. Some project that Connecticut’s current outbreak is already peaking, while others — which Mendes considers more credible — predict the state will get there sometime between Sept. 5 and Sept. 15.
According to Mendes’s projections, Connecticut could see anywhere from 450 to 700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at its peak. As of Friday, the state had 378.
“It seems that things are still very unstable,” Mendes said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty.”
Connecticut continues to see high levels of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, largely owing to the highly contagious delta variant. The state’s numbers have leveled off somewhat in recent weeks but still remain at or near their highest levels since the spring.
At one point, some experts had hoped Connecticut’s numbers would follow the pattern exhibited in the United Kingdom, where COVID-19 cases rose quickly and then fell just as quickly. But the UK has since experienced yet another surge, while the numbers in the United States have continued to rise.
With school starting soon, cooler weather on the way and even highly vaccinated countries like Israel recording high levels of COVID-19, experts say it’s increasingly difficult to guess what’s next. Though vaccinated people have been proved less likely to catch COVID-19 or display severe symptoms, the delta variant has put them at greater risk than they faced this spring.
“Certainly the delta variant has made things more difficult to predict,” said Dr. David Banach, an epidemiologist at Uconn Health. “There are a lot of moving parts, thinking about vaccinations and the potential for boosters and waning immunity and then also thinking about kids going back to school.”
Dr. Ulysses Wu, an infectious disease specialist at Uconn Health, is somewhat more confident in what might come next. Wu said he expects Connecticut’s COVID-19 numbers to drop in September but to potentially increase again later in the fall once the weather cools and activity returns indoors.
“You’re going to basically have a bi-humped curve,” Wu said. “Come mid- to late-october you’re going to start seeing the spikes again.”
As for when COVID-19 might go away for good, Wu said that will depend on vaccination. Connecticut has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, but with hundreds of thousands still unvaccinated and immunity likely waning even for those who have gotten their shots, that clearly isn’t enough.
“Until we vaccinate, we should expect to keep [COVID-19] here for a while,” he said.
Mendes notes that the further into the future one looks the harder it becomes to predict with much accuracy. Months ago, experts forecast a summer light on COVID19 transmission, not anticipating the rise of the delta variant. At any point, another variant could come along that would transform the conversation once again.
This uncertainty, of course, can be difficult for regular people sick of the pandemic and eager to reach some sort of new normal.
For now, Banach said, the only thing to do is focus one day at a time.
“I try not to think about things too far down the road because of the unpredictability,” Banach said. “I’m more trying to think about what will the next two weeks look like.”