For Sox, adapt or die
In ever-shifting ALCS, it’s now Boston that needs to make adjustments
HOUSTON — A good postseason series takes on not one character but several, the dynamics shifting in dizzying fashion that can feel like a succession of hairpin turns on a mountain drive.
A regular-season three-game series is very different from a postseason five-game series, which is very different from a best-ofseven series. The repeated exposure of one group of pitchers to another team necessitates ongoing adjustments that can transform playoff matchups.
The Red Sox-astros ALCS now feels like an amalgamation of three series. Game 1, a 5-4 Astros win, represented a missed opportunity for Boston and a reminder of the way that the Houston lineup can
pounce at any time. Games 2 and 3 were Red Sox blowout wins that
represented the continuation of a history-making stretch for their offense. Games 4 and 5 represented a drastic reversal, with the Red Sox managing just three runs while the Astros erupted at one point for 15 straight runs.
So, what next? That is unknowable, but given the undulations of the first five games, it’s not hard to understand why the Red Sox betrayed little agitation as they got ready to board a Thursday afternoon flight back to Houston.
“We kind of knew this was going to happen. We knew it wasn’t going to be easy. Not with a team like [the Astros],” said Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez. “[But] I’m not doubting our offense.”
The Red Sox demonstrated over their 21-run explosion in Games 2 and 3 that their offense was capable of dominance. Yet the reason underlying their high scoring, they insisted, was not just that they cleared the fences seven times, but that they had plenty of runners on base when they did so.
Five of the homers came with runners on base, including their record-setting three grand slams. Theredsoxfeltthattheircontrolled approach, with a willingness to take
walks and shoot hits to the opposite field, served as the basis for their rallies, one batter setting up the next.
In Games 4 and 5, Boston saw that approach break down. At times, they looked like they were trying to force hard contact, resulting in an endless succession of popups and harmless fly balls in Game 4 and an incredible run of ground balls in Game 5 — a reflection partly of the incredible sinker of Framber Valdez but also of an approach where batters tried to pull pitches that were darting away from them.
“For six, seven days, we were one of the best [postseason] offensive teams ever, and then you go two games cold,” said Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts. “It really sucks, the timing of it, because they were really important games … [But] we still have Game 6, and Game 7 hopefully the next day. We can still get hot. We’ve done it before.”
Throughout the series, the teams have had remarkably similar performances with the bases empty. The Astros are 22 for 101 (.218), while the Sox are 23 for 101 (.228). The great separator has been the performance
with runners in scoring position.
Both teams struggled in such moments in Game 1. In Games 2 and 3, the Astros had few opportunities, while the Red Sox capitalized on their frequent presence on the bases. (Fourrun homers, it turns out, are a great strategy for winning.)
Then, in Games 4 and 5, the Sox went a combined 0 for 13 with runners in scoring position. The Astros, meanwhile, amassed relentless rallies, going 11 for 24 — most notably in their sevenrun ninth inning of Game 4 and their five-run sixth inning in Game 5.
“We haven’t been able to stop their fast-break offense,” said Sox manager Alex Cora. “When they get going, they get going. They don’t stop swinging, and that’s something we recognize.
“With men in scoring position, for X or Y reason, they become Hall of Famers as a team. They’re average with nobody on, but with men in scoring position, they’re Hall of Famers. So we’ve got to make sure we bring them back to earth and we stop what they’re doing.”
But how? Cora mentioned the word “adjustments” seven times in a roughly 10-minute media session on Thursday, so it seems safe to assume the Red Sox are looking to tweak their plan of
attack.
For starters, the Sox seem like they’d be well-served to do a better job of mixing pitches. With runners in scoring position, they have thrown 53.7 percent fastballs in the ALCS, most of the four teams still standing. The Astros are hitting .429 and slugging .571 against Red Sox fastballs with runners in scoring position.
It was particularly surprising to see the Sox pump one fastball after another to Yordan Alvarez in Game 5. His swing was grooved to clobber fastballs to the opposite field, while Chris Sale locked him up with the one slider he threw. Catcher Christian Vázquez acknowledged after the game that he would have liked a do-over on his call for a first-pitch fastball with two on and two out in the sixth.
The Sox may start pitching around Alvarez (hitting .421 with a 1.086 OPS in the series) and likewise working more carefully to Yuli Gurriel (.474, 1.208).
“We need to stop their fast-break offense with men in scoring position, make them normal humans, not Hall of Famers,” said Cora. “There are certain guys that, they’re not going to beat us tomorrow. There are other guys that have to step up for them.”