Sox could use an outfielder, but Suzuki comes with risk
The stove is not hot in America, but in Japan, power-hitting outfielder Seiya Suzuki is in the spotlight.
During an interview with former Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara that was posted to Twitter last week, Suzuki tells Uehara he isn’t sure where he’ll sign in 2022 after he was posted for a transfer to MLB by his current team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization.
But Uehara kept pushing Suzuki, asking him first where he’ll sign, then flat out stating, “You’re going to Boston, right?” according to a translation by a baseball Youtuber on Friday.
“No,” Suzuki reportedly told Uehara. “I don’t know about Boston.”
While the 27-year-old hit 38 homers, one behind the league lead during the 2021 season, he comes with the risk of the unknown as the modern game continues to evolve.
The question is whether or not his upper-cut swing will remain en vogue. The all-or-nothing approach has been popular in MLB over the last few years, but we’ve seen signs of that fading away.
The strikeout rate actually dropped from 2020 to ‘21, and although the difference was less than a full percentage point, it represented the first time the K-rate declined since ‘04 to ‘05. The league-wide contact rate also improved from ‘20 to ‘21, the first time that number has gone up since ‘07 to ‘08.
But there’s unquestionable intrigue around Suzuki, who keeps popping up in rumors related to the Red Sox.
The fit makes sense. When the Sox traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects just before the lockout in December, it cleared up a roster spot for a right-handed hitting outfielder. The Sox need to replace Renfroe, who has been one of the best in baseball at crushing left-handed pitchers throughout his career. Kiké Hernandez is the only right-handed outfielder remaining, with Bradley, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran all swinging it from the left-hand side.
Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant are among the best right-handed hitters still available in free agency, but there’s a better chance of getting hit by a stray snowball on Newbury Street than Chaim Bloom signing any of them at market value.
There are more affordable options, such as Andrew Mccutchen and Jorge Soler, though they’ll each be in their 30s by the time the season starts.
Suzuki is projected to sign for five years, $55 million, plus a posting fee, via MLB Trade Rumors. There’s such a wide range of outcomes that it’s possible it’d be a waste of money altogether and become Bloom’s version of Rusney Castillo, the stain on former general manager Ben Cherington’s resume, just as well as it could be Bloom’s best move since finding Garrett Whitlock in the Rule 5 draft.
The numbers are impressive and have steadily gotten better since Suzuki began his professional career at 18 years old. He was a contact hitter early in his career but has turned into one of the best power hitters in Japan from 2015 to 2016, when he saw his home run totals jump from five in ‘15 to 29 in ‘16.
He also had a remarkable 87 walks, second-most in NPB, while showing improved plate discipline throughout his pro career.
Suzuki has shown the ability to hit for contact and power, with a .317 average, .433 on-base percentage and 1.072 OPS in 2021. His OPS was first in NPB. Behind him in second place was Tyler Austin, the former Yankees outfielder who had a .741 OPS in the majors before going to Japan.
If Suzuki has an OPS around .750 in Boston, he’d probably be considered a waste of an eight-figure salary. The average OPS by a big league right fielder last year was .757.