Who’s on third?
With postseason looming, Uconn desperate to find a consistent option to back up Bueckers, Edwards
Geno Auriemma knows as well as anyone that this year’s Uconn women’s basketball team will not enter the NCAA Tournament as a national championship favorite.
No matter what happens in the Big East Tournament this week or in other conference brackets around the country, Auriemma will feel like an underdog on Selection Sunday. The Huskies coach wears his pessimism like a badge of honor to soften the blow when a season ends short of that ultimate goal, a blow always stings a bit more after so many years of accomplishing it over and over again.
“I’m the most negative person in the world when it comes to trying to predict where we’re going to be, because I always assume the worst. Then I can be pleasantly surprised,” Auriemma said with a grin. ” … Some years I would tell you I like our chances. Some years I would say we’d have to get really lucky. This year, we would have to get exceptionally lucky to go really deep in this tournament.
Auriemma called this season one of his most gratifying ever after completing his 11th undefeated season in the Big East, especially heaping praise on Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards for their performances under enormous pressure, week in and week out.
Bueckers, the 2021 National Player of the Year, is averaging a career-best 20.7 points per game plus 3.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds in her first season back from an ACL tear. She has the second-highest shooting percentage in the nation among guards, making 54% from the field. Edwards averages 17.9 points and 9.5 rebounds and ended the regular season on the best stretch of her career with nine double-doubles over the Huskies’ final 12 games.
“The pressure is on them to have to be good every day and be perfect every day and score for us and stay out of foul trouble and play a ton of minutes, with the understanding that if they don’t do that, our chances of winning are less if not none,” Auriemma said. “To be that good, to be that consistent … this year, maybe more so than other years, it feels really, really gratifying.”
Uconn boasts the No. 11 scoring offense in the country averaging 81.5 point per game, but the Huskies’ production has stagnated especially in recent weeks. It would be easy to point to the loss of Aubrey Griffin to a season-ending ACL tear on Jan. 3 when she was logging 9.5 points per game, but
Uconn met or exceeded its 81-point average in six straight games after the injury. Instead, the biggest factor looks like fatigue more than anything: The Huskies’ first performance under 70 points since losing at Texas on Dec. 3 came in a loss to No. 14 Notre Dame on Jan. 27 that ended their 13-game winning streak. They have scored below their season average six more times in 10 games since then.
Barring something unprecedented, the Huskies shouldn’t be challenged too much during the Big East tournament. But three games in three days is a grueling slate for any team, and Uconn could have as few as eight available players with Amari Deberry in concussion protocol as of last Saturday. Ashlynn Shade and KK Arnold, who have started since December for the Huskies, are true freshmen experiencing a college postseason for the first time. Qadence Samuels and Ice Brady, Uconn’s top options off the bench, are also both rookies (Brady redshirted last season with a ruptured Achilles), and both are averaging less than 16 minutes per game.
The No. 9 Huskies (26-5, 18-0 Big East) are desperate for a third scorer to emerge alongside Edwards and Bueckers, and their last opportunity before the real dance begins with the opener of the conference tournament against Butler or Providence on Saturday (noon, FS1).
Here’s a look at the top possibilities:
KK Arnold: The rookie jack-of-all-trades
Arnold was thrust into Uconn’s starting lineup after Azzi Fudd suffered a season-ending ACL tear in late November, but the freshman is playing like a veteran with 26 starts now behind her. Arnold was the No. 6 prospect in the class of 2023 and has lived up to those expectations, earning Big East Freshman of the Week six times while averaging 8.9 points and a team-high 2.4 steals per game. Those steals are also essential to the Huskies’ transition offense, and Arnold’s speed makes her brutal matchup for just about anyone except the most elite guards in the nation.
“KK can impact the game a little bit more than she thinks she can. She has the ability to disrupt the other team’s offense, create opportunities for us in transition,” Auriemma said. “She’s athletic, she’s strong. She’s a tough kid. She doesn’t shy away from anything.”
Arnold’s best trait is her versatility, especially as her rebounding numbers have skyrocketed over the last several games. Even playing alongside two of the most skilled ball-handlers in program history, Arnold has carved out space for her point guard roots averaging 3.2 assists behind Nika Muhl’s 6.4 and Bueckers’ 3.7. But she lacks a natural instinct to shoot, the hunger to get to the basket that defines an elite scorer, likely in part because of her inexperience. Building confidence to shoot when two All-americans are just a pass away isn’t an easy task, but Arnold’s hustle stats place her in enough scoring situations that she is certainly capable of ramping up her offensive contribution.
Ashlynn Shade: The hard-nosed sharpshooter
Shade is the closest thing to a pure shooter in the Huskies’ lineup, and her strongest performances have produced eye-catching numbers. She scored a career-high 22 points going 9-for-15 from the field against Butler on Dec. 18, and she put up 17 points against Seton Hall on Feb. 7 behind 5-for-10 shooting from 3-point range. She is currently Uconn’s No. 3 scorer, averaging 11.2 points, and she has scored at least 15 in 10 of her 26 starts.
The freshman is also a dedicated contributor on the boards ranking third on the team with 3.2 rebounds per game, but her scoring has seen a significant dip from the midseason when Uconn was on its winning streak. She ended the regular season on back-to-back performances without a 3-pointer, and she shot less than 46% from the field in seven of the team’s last 10 games.
“She worries too much about what I think or about what other people think, and the more she lets go of that and just plays, there’s a lot in her,” Auriemma said. “She’s competitive, and when you tell her something she does it … For as tough and hard-nosed a kid as she is, she’s one of the most cautious kids I’ve ever met. We’re trying to get her to just be more adventurous and take chances.”
Shade has all the traits and technical skill to become a secret weapon for the Huskies offensively, but like Arnold, confidence is at the core of her question marks. Shade led Noblesville to the Indiana high school state championship as a junior in 2022, so she’s no stranger to high-pressure moments, but national television cameras and tournament logos take things up a notch for a young player just getting comfortable with the regular-season grind.
Nika Muhl: The primary ball-handler
Muhl’s natural role is not as a scorer, but the two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year is averaging 7.1 points and shooting huge career highs at 48.3% from the field and 41.4% from 3-point range. She had never averaged above 45% from the field or 35% on 3-pointers before this season. She is a single assist away from her second consecutive season with 200-plus, and she ranks fourth all-time with 632 career assists behind only Jennifer Rizzotti (637), Diana Taurasi (648) and Moriah Jefferson (659).
Her biggest problem is inconsistency, and regulating the emotional highs and lows is an ongoing learning experience. That makes her a risky option to lean on in postseason scenario, especially once Uconn gets to the biggest opponents at the NCAA level. Muhl had a season-low two assists at No. 1 South Carolina and played just 19 minutes in the Huskies’ loss to Notre Dame because of early foul trouble.
“Nika’s a mercurial kind of personality, and when you get her in a space where she’s operating at a real high level, the defense is spectacular. The ball-handling, the vision, the assists, the making three, it’s like a culmination of four years of work,” Auriemma said. “And when her emotions get a little bit out of whack, it’s still something she’s working on … You saw what happened in the Notre Dame game when she only played 10 minutes. We just can’t function.”