Probabilities of at least 1 major hurricane to make landfall in US, Florida higher than average

Colorado State University meteorologists have released their first official forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

It doesn’t look good.

The forecast calls for an “extremely active” season of 23 named storms.

Their predictions echo earlier forecasts from AccuWeather and Florida’s Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.

Next up will be the season forecast from the National Hurricane Center, usually released in May.

Indications as early as February have had forecasters on edge, predicting it will be an active season because of the combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin is made up of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Colorado State University predicting 23 named storms for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

CSU’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for:

23 named storms.

11 hurricanes.

5 major hurricanes.

“We estimate 2024 will have 23 named storms, average is 14.4; 115 named storm days, average is 69.4; 11 hurricanes, average is 7.2; 45 hurricane days, average is 27.0; five major — Category 3-4-5 — hurricanes, average is 3.2; and 13 major hurricane days, average is 7.4,” CSU said.

Where could hurricanes hit this season?

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU meteorologists said in the announcement released April 4.

“The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average.”

A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher. A Category 3 storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Entire continental U.S. coastline: 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

U.S. East Coast, including peninsula of Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida): 34% (average from 1880– 2020 is 21%)

Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville: 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

Why is everyone predicting a very busy hurricane season?

Two factors come into play: La Niña and very warm water temperatures.

Both favor the formation of hurricanes.

“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity,” CSU said. Wind shear tears apart developing storms.

“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.”

Those warm Atlantic waters provide an environment favorable for both the development and intensification of hurricanes, CSU said.

The two together pack a powerful punch when it comes to hurricanes.

How are hurricane season forecasts made? How accurate are they?

The April CSU forecast was developed from data from 1979 to 2020.

“Seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years.

“Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike,” CSU said.

“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.”

But, meteorologists said, “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes

one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”

AccuWeather forecast for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. When is hurricane season for Florida?

AccuWeather is predicting an “explosive” hurricane season that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a season.

“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”

Here’s the AccuWeather forecast for the upcoming 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

20-25 named storms.

8-12 hurricanes.

4-7 major hurricanes.

4-6 direct U.S. impacts.

Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas face heightened risk.

Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.