Candidates target rival’s shady image
SAN FRANCISCO — With the presidential field set for battle between two candidates who are loathed at least as much as they are liked, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton might start printing similar bumper stickers boasting of their strategies for winning the White House.
For likely Republican nominee Trump: “Vote Trump: At Least I’m Not Her.”
And for likely Democratic nominee Clinton: “Vote Clinton: At Least I’m Not Him.”
The “I’m not …” strategy will intensify Monday, when Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech in New Hampshire outlining why Clinton is unfit for the presidency. Trump previewed his attack during a speech after the California primary last week that focused on the Clinton Foundation during her tenure as secretary of state.
“Hillary Clinton turned the State Department into her private hedge fund,” Trump said. “The Russians, the Saudis, the Chinese all gave money to Bill and Hillary and got favorable treatment in return.
“Secretary Clinton even did all of the work on a totally illegal private (email) server.”
Credibility questions
Trump will try to tap into the 64 percent of voters who polls say don’t find Clinton trustworthy. But he has two challenges.
First, his credibility has been tainted by peddling debunked conspiracy theories, including that President Barack Obama was born in Kenya and that Sen. Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.
But Trump’s bigger concern might be his difficulty focusing on a single line of attack. When he’s not tethered to a script, he can be scattershot on the stump.
“Kitchen-sink attacks usually aren’t that effective when somebody tries to deploy 13 different attacks at the same time,” said political consultant Ben LaBolt, who was the national press secretary for Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. “Poll-tested attacks that are grounded in fact are the ones that are usually effective with persuadable voters.”
On the Democratic side, there’s nothing secret or particularly subtle about their strategy, said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. Clinton will hit Trump early and often with a common refrain: He is not qualified to be president.
Warren weighs in
On Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called Trump “a loud, nasty, thin-skinned fraud … who serves no one but himself.” She piled on, adding that Trump, the businessman, “inherited a fortune and kept it rolling by cheating people.”
Lobbing negative attacks at each other might be the dual strategies, but right now both candidates are viewed so unfavorably that their challenge is how to get those “persuadable” undecided voters who will swing the election to listen.
Their unlikability can be told through favorability numbers — the difference between voters who view them favorably and those who don’t. Clinton’s net favorability is minus 14, according to 173 polls tracked by the Huffington Post. Trump’s is minus 22.
For context, Obama’s is plus 6.
“They’re starting where candidates usually end — you get to November and everyone’s got negative ratings,” said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic presidential campaign strategist and Fox News commentator. “Anybody who believes the arguments Trump is making against Hillary Clinton is already in his corner. And the same thing on the other side.”
‘Bull in the china shop’
What’s key in such an environment, Trippi said, is for each candidate not to reinforce the negative impressions voters have of them.
There, Clinton has an advantage, as she’s the more experienced, cautious and stage-managed candidate.
Trump’s biggest enemy is likely to be himself, Trippi and LaBolt said, given his propensity to fire off intemperate, often juvenile remarks on Twitter at the slightest provocation.
“Trump’s problem is that every day he seems to be going out and reinforcing these negative impressions people have of him,” Trippi said.
But he will come out gunning Monday.
On the other side, Tony Quinn, a former GOP consultant who is editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book, said it’s hard to predict what attacks will stick to Trump.
“As long as (Trump) is flaying the establishment, that’s fine” with his backers, he said. “They want him to be the bull in the china shop and the more china he breaks, the better.”