Shale’s flow may decline in 2017

The flow of oil from U.S. shale fields is projected by government analysts to fall 14 percent by2017, as the reverberations of the crash in crude prices continue to be felt.

Production from those shale fields had increased exponentially over the past decade as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques were improved. Shale oil now accounts for more than half of the nation’s crude output.

But accordin gto an Energy Department report, shale oil output—which peaked in 2015 at 4.9 million barrels a day — will fall to 4.2 million barrels bythe endof next year.

The fall is “mainly attributed to low oil prices and the resulting cuts in investment,” the Energy Department said .“However, production declines will continue to be mitigated by reduction sin cost and improvements in drilling techniques.”

Energy Department analysts were more bullish for the period after 2017, predicting that by 2040 shale oil production will increase 45 percent from 2015 levels to 7.1 million barrels a day. U.S. natural gas production from sh ale would more than double to 79 billion cubic feet a day—with no drop off in production in the short-term.

Those predictions are predicated on analysts’ ability to predict future oil prices. In the report, the Energy Department explained that fluctuations in oil prices could cause wild production swings. In the event of high prices, sh ale oil would reach more than 12 million barrels a day by2040. If prices were low, production could fall close to 3 million barrels a day.

The E IA also predicts that by 2019, the Bakken formation, which sp ans North Dakota and Montana, will becomethe country’s largest oil field, surpassing the Eagle Ford field in South Texas.

By2040, analysts predict, the Bakken will produce 2.3 million barrels per day, almost a third of the nation’s shale oil output.