Texas Dems stick to basics
Building for future still focus despite Trump fallout
Sean Rivera is starting his evening on the second floor of the Bexar County Democratic Party headquarters, learning how he can best pitch in for a party that has not won a statewide election since before he was born.
Rivera acknowledges that Texas is an uphill battle for Hillary Clinton, despite the Democratic hopes raised by Donald Trump’s candidacy.
Still, he wants to help the party make progress at a time when the Republican presidential nominee is aggressively pushing the boundaries of political discourse, the latest sign of what Rivera sees as a negative shift in “what we are willing to consider acceptable behavior.”
“If we can get enough people involved in the political process, maybe we can shift the window back somehow,” said Rivera, 20, born in Houston, raised in Sugar Land and studying
at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
As long-beleaguered Texas Democrats look toward November, they see opportunity in the fallout from Trump’s rhetoric targeting Latinos and women. Surveys have shown Trump leading Clinton by only single digits in Texas.
“There ain’t enough white males in this state for him to win,” Garry Mauro, Texas point person for Clinton’s campaign, proclaimed when Trump breezed through the state last month.
Mauro in a recent interview expanded on his comments, saying he is not predicting a Clinton win so far ahead of the election but highlighting the encouraging political landscape. He sees no divide with party leaders who are focusing on more realistic goals of down-ballot wins and party-building.
“Considering I was the last person to win a statewide race as Democrat, I’m not stupid,” said Mauro, elected to the last of his four terms as land commissioner in 1994, one of a number of Democratic candidates to prevail that year. “But I do believe that it’s the most encouraging I’ve ever seen the numbers look.” Systemic challenges
Texas Democratic Party officials think Trump’s campaign has the potential to help inspire their voters, sway independents, depress or switch Republican votes and, thus, help close their gap with the GOP. That can help them up and down the ballot. They also are realists. The last time a Democrat came within single digits of a Republican in Texas was in 1996, when Bill Clinton lost the state’s vote on his way to the White House. A Democrat has not won Texas’ support for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Their 2014 gubernatorial candidate, WendyDavis lost to Republican Greg Abbott by 20 percentage points after a well-funded, nationally noted campaign built on her filibuster against tighter abortion restrictions.
Democrats also face systemic challenges, including legislative and congressional maps that favor Republicans, and continuing fallout from the voter ID law. Although that law is being eased, at least for this election, somethinkthe damage has been done in discouraging poor and minority people from voting.
So, while Democratic leaders are glad for the excitement generated by the presidential race, the state party is spending this cycle zeroing in on several key down-ballot contests and working to develop a solid party infrastructure to pave the way for future elections.
“We’re in a comeback period. We’re laying the infrastructure for making Texas a competitive state politically. We’ve always expected it to be a multiyear process,” said U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio. He and his twin brother, U.S. Housing Secretary Julián Castro, a former mayor of San Antonio, figure large in party hopes for a future in which it will reap the benefits of changing state demographics, particularly the growing Latino population.
Joaquin Castro has floated the idea of challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Few, however, expect him to take the leap absent a dramatic change in Democratic prospects in Texas, which is unlikely that soon absent Trump winning the presidency and being a disaster.
“We’ve been laser-focused on making sure that we build permanent infrastructure in 2016,” said Manny Garcia, deputy executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Our mantra is ‘Own your home turf, help mobilize your own community and let’s use 2016 as a real permanent infrastructure development year.’”
That mantra is not sexy, but it is crucial, said Democratic strategist Colin Strother.
The party has failed in the past by hanging its hopes on “gimmicks” and personalities dating back to Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez’s ill-fated effort to unseat then-Gov. Rick Perry in 2002, Strother said. Now, he thinks it is on the right track with its focus on the fundamentals.
“You can be Usain Bolt, but if you don’t tie your tennis shoes, you’re not going to beat anybody,” Strother said.
Building infrastructure means candidate recruit- ment and training; an aggressive communications strategy rooted in “kitchentable issues” that seeks to showcase the Democratic Party as the mainstream choice; and a focus on strengthening the local party structure.
Democrats’ top Texas priority is the Congressional District 23 race in which Democrat Pete Gallego is trying to regain the seat he lost two years ago to Republican Will Hurd. Other targets include a handful of Texas House races in San Antonio and the Houston and Dallas areas. County leaders are zeroing in onkey local races.
Some Democrats suggest the party is aiming too low. Pollster Leland Beatty raised some eyebrows with a memo in which he said Democrats this election have “their greatest opportunity in a generation.”
Beatty said that with enough funding, 20 House districts could be competitive and that little-known Democratic candidate Grady Yarbrough could beat Republican former lawmaker Wayne Christian for a Railroad Commission post. Some scoffed, but Beatty said it’s “a real opportunity” while conceding, “It’s going to cost money.”
“They’re not wrong about building infrastructure,” Beatty said. “But this is part of that: Learning to win. I’m saying, if people out there want to figure out some Democrat to give money to, this would be a damn good time.” Building on progress
Mary Beth Rogers, a policy and political expert who was a campaign manager and chief of staff for Texas’ last Democratic governor, Ann Richards, said the party “is wise to say ‘wait a minute’ and to be realistic about what can happen.”
Narrowing the gap with Republicans is a crucial step, said Rogers, as is developing a vision on which the party can grow.
If Clinton can get in the 46 to 48 percent range – from the 41 percent that Obama received from Texans in 2012 —“that gives the party a larger base to work with for 2018,” said Rogers, author of “Turning Texas Blue: What It Will Take to Break the GOP Grip on America’s Reddest State.” That would give it a chance to begin building a bench in 2018 “that can then move into some of the larger offices by 2020,” whenstatewide posts from the governor on down will be on the ballot, she said.
Such progress builds on itself, including by sparking the interest of donors to national candidates like Clinton, whoeasily can pick up seven figures on a quick Texas trip for her campaign and national party.
“There are people here who will give money to Democrats. They have to be convinced that they are not throwing their money away,” Rogers said.
Republicans, meanwhile, are not worried about losing this cycle, but there is a “giant red flag” in state population shifts to urban areas that swing heavily Democratic, said Republican Party of Texas spokesman Mike Joyce. The GOP is working on minority engagement and reaching into urban areas, he said.
“Relying on suburban and rural counties can only carry you for so long,” Joyce said. “The time to get serious about hanging on to power in the state has to start right now.”
Harris County Democratic Chairman Lane Lewis said Democrats are focused locally on adding to their number of judges, targeting a couple of House races and fighting to take the district attorney’s office. They are stressing vote-bymail applications and turning out senior citizens and women. He expects Trump to help their effort. ‘Daily direct impact’
“You’ve got Republicans that are either going to be sitting home or they are going to be crossing over because of Trump,” he said.
Thefocusondown-ballot races is meaningful, not an afterthought, Lewis added.
“It’s important to get excited about president. It’s important to get excited about a governor’s race. It’s important to get excited about those top-of-the-ticket type of things,” he said. “But when you go into the voting booth, and you look at a person’s name and the position they’re running for, think about where their desk is going to be. Because the closer that desk is to your front door, the more of daily direct impact they’re going to have on your life.”