For time being, GOP is avoiding the Trump nightmare scenario

The past few weeks have brought a string of polls showing the presidential race tightening. The most recent poll in every swing state has Donald Trump within at least five points of Hillary Clinton.

But one number buried inside a CNN/ORC poll has to be particularly encouraging for Republicans: the generic ballot result.

That question asks voters whether they, as of today, would vote for a generic Republican candidate or a generic Democratic candidate for Congress. Among registered voters, 47 percent picked the Republican, and 46 percent picked a Democrat. Among likely voters, Republicans also led 49-47.

Another pollster — George Washington University — also showed the generic ballot extremely close, with Democrats ahead, 45-43, among likely voters.

Both polls represent an improvement for the GOP over recent weeks, given fear in Republican circles that Donald Trump’s candidacy could be an utter disaster for down-ballot Republicans in November.

Republicans have to be encouraged by new polls showing Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Rob Portman, R-Ohio, with clear leads in key states.

And while those polls are good news, the generic ballot numbers are so far indicating Rubio and Portman aren’t necessarily the exceptions. They suggest Republicans aren’t being dragged down by Trump right now nearly as muchas the party feared.

Generally, the generic ballot has tipped us off when we have a wave coming. In 2006 and 2008, Democrats had a clear advantage on the generic ballot, and they won big. Same for Republicans in 2010.

In 2014, the generic ballot then was close in some polls, but the majority gave Republicans an edge. The Washington Post-ABC News poll on the eve of the election gave Republicans a six-point advantage, and they won the congressional popular vote by seven points.

In other words: It was clear a GOP wave was possible, and it happened.

Democrats can win the Senate without a wave, yes. But that result becomes far less probable if the generic ballot remains anywhere close to a tie. That’s when incumbents in swing states tend to win re-election and the majority party tends to stay in power.

Keep an eye on this poll number over the next couple months. If it’s close to even, Republicans in the Year of Trump will be pinching themselves.

Robert Cohen / St. Louis Post-Dispatch via Associated Press Presidential candidate Donald Trump appears Saturday before the Mass for conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly in St. Louis. Republicans who feared a down-ballot disaster because of Trump have reason to be encouraged.