Syria’s chaos grows ahead of cease-fire

BEIRUT — On the swirling battlefield in Syria in the past month alone, Turkey has sent in tanks, incendiary bombs have charred children and whole towns have been emptied in surrender deals that could change the country’s demographics.

All that is a stark reminder that for all the talk of diplomacy from Geneva, the war has been accelerating and shape-shifting, as unpredictable as it has ever been in its 5 years.

Hours after the United States and Russia announced a cease-fire to start Monday in Syria, an airstrike hit holiday shoppers in insurgent-held territory on Saturday, just another day in the government’s Russian-backed air war.

The war’s myriad combatants met the diplomatic developments with skepticism, as government warplanes pounded multiple areas, killing at least 85 people, insurgents declared new offensives and Turkish tanks rolled along the border. Players scrambling

Many of the players — especially President Bashar Assad and his allies, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah — are scrambling as the clock runs out on the tenure of President Barack Obama, who has made clear that he will not significantly shift his Syria policy. A new president could usher in a more active U.S. role in the conflict.

As the combatants rush to establish facts on the ground, often using brutal means, they could irrevocably shape Syria’s future and constrain the choices of peacemakers and warmakers alike — in ways at least as notable as the Russian-American deal. Deadly trends

These are just a few of the moves regional players have made recently — trends that could slow if the cease-fire takes hold, or continue if it collapses or is not well-enforced.

• The Syrian government is forcing surrenders from besieged rebel towns near the capital, Damascus, and busing residents hundreds of miles to insurgent territory, in what its opponents are calling ethnic cleansing.

• Rebels in the city of Aleppo have continued to indiscriminately shell populated government areas, most recently killing a doctor.

• Russia has been conducting airstrikes to help government forces encircle rebels in Aleppo and killing insurgents who could mount a counteroffensive. It did not agree to the cease-fire until the siege had been established.