What if … Astros had picked Bryant instead of Appel?
Cubs reaping rewards from draft decision
However painful for Astros’ fans, the sight of the National League Most Valuable Player frontrunner rounding the bases at Minute Maid Park on Friday night conjured reminders of one of baseball’s ultimate ‘What if?’ scenarios.
What if the Astros had not passed on Kris Bryant in favor of Mark Appel with the first pick of the 2013 draft?
Like the seemingly indomitable Cubs, the World Series favorites who came into Friday’s series opener seven games better than the next-best team in the majors, the Astros rebuilt through drafting and acquiring a stable of talented young position players.
They boast an MVP candidate in their own right in Jose Altuve, one of the game’s top shortstops in 21-year-old Carlos Correa, a great all-around right fielder in George Springer and a versatile and smooth-swinging potential star in 22-year-old Alex Bregman.
But they could have also had Bryant, who has emerged as a 24-year-old superstar for the Cubs.
‘Drive yourself crazy’
As much credit as general manager Jeff Luhnow’s front office deserves for the franchise-altering selection of Correa over Byron Buxton in 2012, it’s difficult not to also wonder what could have been, to envision the quintet of Altuve, Bryant, Correa, Springer and Bregman filling (in any order) the top five spots on a lineup card.
“You can play that game until you drive yourself crazy in this line of work,” Luhnow said before Friday’s series opener, in which Bryant opened the scoring with a two-run home run off Joe Musgrove in the fifth inning.
“Kris Bryant’s a great player. We certainly knew he was going to be selected high in the draft, either 1 or 2, and I think he’s had a very good career and the Cubs have benefited a lot from having him. So, I’m not going to really reflect on it more than that.”
Three years and three months ago, Luhnow and his top lieutenants faced a decision atop a draft without a consensus No. 1. Appel, the highly touted Stanford righthander, Bryant, the slugger and collegiate national player of the year from the University of San Diego, and Oklahoma righthander Jon Gray were widely considered the top three in the class.
Seeking an elite pitcher whom they felt could headline their future rotation, the Astros opted for the Houston-born Appel, leaving Bryant for the Cubs and Gray for the Rockies. Now 25 and with the Phillies, Appel has still yet to reach the majors. (He made only eight Class AAAstarts this season before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery.) Gray, 24, has been solid while far from spectacular starting games for a team that plays in the majors’ worst pitcher’s park.
Minds made up early
Meanwhile, Bryant is already one of the game’s best hitters for a Cubs team with the best record in the majors (90-51). Reflecting Friday on the pre-draft process, the Cubs’ third baseman/outfielder said he didn’t remember too many details of his conversations with teams but that he had more with the Cubs and the Rockies than the Astros.
“Picking first, I feel like they made up their mind early on so they knew who they were going to pick,” Bryant said. “Having the same agent (Scott Boras) as Mark Appel, it was pretty easy for meto kind of determine where I was going.”
Bryant debuted in the majors only last season, so he wouldn’t have impacted the Astros’ wretched 111loss season that led to the No. 1 pick in 2014, which after they failed to sign high school lefthander Brady Aiken turned into the No. 2 pick, Bregman, the following year.
Bryant, who has played all but pitcher, catcher and second base this season, has a chance to become only the fourth player in major league history named his league’s rookie of the year in his first season and MVP in his second. Cal Ripken Jr. (1982-83), Ryan Howard (2005-06) and Dustin Pedroia (07-08) are the only three players to accomplish that feat.
A unanimous selection for rookie of the year last year, Bryant has taken off in 2016. According to baseball-reference.com’s wins above replacement metric, he came into the weekend as the best player in the National League (7.0 WAR) by more than a full win and third-best in the majors behind only Mike Trout (9.3) and Mookie Betts (7.8).
Bryant is batting .299 with 37 home runs, 32 doubles and a .968 OPS.
He came into the season with the goal of making more contact, at which he has succeeded. His contact rate has improved from 66.3 percent from last year — when he led the NL in strikeouts (199) — to 73.8 percent, according to Baseball Info Solutions.
“Nothing he does surprises me,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said, “and right now he’s probably playing as good as he has in the two years that I’ve seen him.”
He’s quickly becomean important piece on the best team in baseball.
“Looking back on it, I wouldn’t change a thing,” Bryant said. “I’m very happy here and it’s an unbelievable team to play for.”