Will big-money gamble be worth the risk?

Texans have many talented pieces in place, but a big year hinges on Osweiler’s play at QB

The answer: Cam Newton. Tom Brady. Aaron Rodgers. Ben Roethlisberger. Russell Wilson. Drew Brees. Carson Palmer. Andrew Luck.

The question: Who are the quarterbacks who would make the 2016 Texans favorites to play in the Super Bowl?

That is how good the Texans’ defense is expected to be this season and speaks to how talented the roster is.

But the Texans don’t have one of those quarterbacks. They played “Let’s Make a Deal” and landed Brock Osweiler, a lanky, athletic fifth-year player, who was Denver’s secondround pick in 2012.

Starting with the season opener against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Osweiler’s performance will have more to do with the Texans’ success or failure this season than any player on the team.

He was the story of NFL free agency. By leaving Denver to come to Houston, he signed the biggest deal of any player to switch teams this offseason.

The amount of money — $37 million guaranteed or the four-year, $72 million total — really doesn’t matter. It’s not like the Texans raised ticket prices because of Osweiler’s contract.

Coming off one of the most embarrassing performances in NFL playoff history — a 30-0 wipeout at home to the Chiefs — the Texans were going to increase ticket prices regardless of how much money they paid their quarterback.

The franchise follows a general, albeit unwritten, rule: “Win more than two games, ticket prices increase. Win two games, they stay the same.”

Though I say it’s not about the money, should Osweiler fail, he will face harsher criticism than any player in franchise history.

Abig-time quarterback with a big-time salary will get big-time heat.

What, me nervous?

Owner Bob McNair told Rick Smith and Bill O’Brien to go get a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback, and they picked Osweiler.

Broncos sources say teammates and coaches liked Osweiler, and he is a hard worker, but they doubt he is a special player.

The Texans, who aren’t asking Osweiler to be special early on, offer him an excellent chance to prove the doubters wrong.

Entering the season as a starter for the first time since 2011, when he was at Arizona State, and for only the second time since his senior season in high school (2008), one would expect Osweiler to be nervous. He says that emotion isn’t part of his personality when it comes to football.

“There’s no nerves,” Osweiler said. “I believe if you prepare the correct way, what do you have to be nervous about? You’ve already played the game all week long. Nowyou just need to go connect the dots on Sunday.”

If only football were as simple as Connect the Dots.

The Texans’ odds of winning the Super Bowl dropped from 40/1 to 20/1 immediately after the team signed Osweiler, but they have risen back to 33/1.

No projected challenger has seen its odds fall or rise so dramatically. The Cowboys, for instance, were at 20/1 with the Texans in March, but despite losing starting quarterback Tony Romo for probably half the season with a back injury, they are at 25/1. What does that mean? The public, particularly the gambling public, does not believe in the Texans.

A history of mediocrity, and consecutive 9-7 seasons under O’Brien, doesn’t engender belief that the Texans will be the first team to do the Super Bowl Shuffle in its own stadium.

O’Brien, who is listed alongside a group coaches with 50/1 odds, the secondworst available, of being named coach of the year, says the 9-7 bar is too low.

“The fan base deserves a winner here, a big-time winner,” he said. “That’s one of our motivations.”

That isn’t just tough talk. O’Brien believes this squad can be very good. But there are questions, especially on offense. We don’t know what we don’t know.

The Texans’ offensive line is a mess. Osweiler’s tendency to hold onto to the ball too long, a habit he has worked hard to break, could prove disastrous behind a line that has been beset with injuries and had questions when healthy.

Speed kills, though, and the Texans have added firepower at the skill positions that could provide enough big plays until the line settles in.

That talent, to a large extent, is unproven.

DeAndre Hopkins is a budding star, who had 111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, but the other four receivers are rookies (Will Fuller and Braxton Miller), and second-year players (Jaelen Strong and Keith Mumphery) who had just 14 catches apiece a year ago.

O’Brien brags about tight ends C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. They must really be something in shorts, because neither has shown to be anywhere near even average in games. Neither has had more than 20 receptions in either of their five combined seasons.

‘We’ll be ready to go’

But all eyes will be on Osweiler. His decisionmaking will be key as he operates O’Brien’s challenging system that puts a lot of pressure on the QB.

Determining how good these Texans will be is pure guessery, there are too many unknowns, but on paper, McNair’s 15th team is as talented as any he’s had.

If the quarterback performs at a high level, it could be a special year.

If not, we’ll spend much of the season talking about the same ol’ middle-of thepack Texans.

“We’ll be ready to go,” Osweiler said. “I can promise you that.”